[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141243
SWODY1
SPC AC 141241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
SAV 15 SW SOP 55 WSW RIC 30 NE BWI 10 SSE POU BDL 25 NE EWB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
CDR 50 NW MHN 25 WNW LBF LBL 20 ESE AMA 15 NNW CVS 25 SE LVS 40 W
TAD 10 NW CYS 45 WSW CDR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE RRT 45 NNE GFK
30 WNW DVL 10 NE ISN 35 N OLF 50 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 35 W MCN 40 ESE
CHA 20 S 5I3 35 WSW EKN 45 WSW DCA 35 ESE CXY 15 W POU BAF 10 SE
BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 4OM 30 SE EPH
45 ESE ALW 80 NNE BOI 50 NNE SUN PIH 45 NNE EVW 40 SSE RKS 20 S RWL
55 N DGW 45 N RAP 40 N PIR 30 SW HON OFK 20 NNW PNC 20 NNW OKC 45 S
ADM 25 SSE DAL 10 WNW VCT 40 SW PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 15 E RAL 25
NW RAL 25 SW PMD 20 NNW OXR 40 SSW BFL 25 SE BFL 30 NE BFL 25 ESE
FAT 30 NE MER 40 ENE SAC 45 SW SVE 25 SE MHS 40 ESE CEC 25 ENE 4BK
35 E OTH 25 N OTH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.  THIS SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITHIN NWLY WARM ADVECTION REGIME. DESPITE THE
RECENT SUPPRESSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT
APPEARS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RETURN ACROSS ERN CO
INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...SLY LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM WRN
KS INTO WRN NEB WHICH WILL AID LATE AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION
SUGGEST THERMAL PROFILES ARE ADEQUATELY COOL THROUGH A DEEP LAYER TO
ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG TO DEVELOP BY PEAK
HEATING.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION...IT APPEARS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE THEN
PROPAGATE SWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL SOON MOVE INLAND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AS
IT MOVES QUICKLY NNEWD TOWARD DELAWARE.  THIS EXPECTED TRACK WILL
RESULT IN WEAKENING WIND FIELDS AND A LIMITED AREA...MAINLY COASTAL
REGIONS FROM NC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...EXPOSED TO FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.  12Z SOUNDING FROM MHX SUPPORTS THIS THREAT
WITH A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SBCAPE OF ROUGHLY
1700J/KG...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
THE CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.