[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140533
SWODY1
SPC AC 140531

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
SAV 10 S FLO RDU 20 E BWI 10 SSE POU BDL 25 NE EWB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E
AKO 20 NE GLD DDC 20 NW GAG AMA TCC RTN COS 10 E AKO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE RRT 45 NNE GFK
30 WNW DVL 10 NE ISN 35 N OLF 50 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 15 E RAL 25
NW RAL 25 SW PMD 20 NNW OXR 40 SSW BFL 25 SE BFL 30 NE BFL 25 ESE
FAT 30 NE MER 40 ENE SAC 45 SW SVE 25 SE MHS 40 ESE CEC 25 ENE 4BK
35 E OTH ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 4OM 30 SE EPH
45 ESE ALW 80 NNE BOI 50 NNE SUN PIH 45 NNE EVW 40 SSE RKS 20 S RWL
55 N DGW 45 N RAP 40 N PIR 30 SW HON 30 E BUB 35 S HSI 15 SSE SLN 20
NNW PNC 20 NNW OKC 45 S ADM 25 SSE DAL 10 WNW VCT 40 SW PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 35 W MCN 40 ESE
CHA 20 S 5I3 35 WSW EKN 45 WSW DCA 35 ESE CXY 30 SE MSV BDL 25 SE
BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS....

MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S...WHILE BROAD
CYCLONIC REGIME PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES.  IN
CONFLUENCE BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE...HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD UP ATLANTIC COAST AREAS...SLOWLY WEAKENING IN MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED/SLIGHTLY COOLER ENVIRONMENT.

...EASTERN SEABOARD...
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST IN
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CHARLEY...PRIMARILY NEAR/NORTH AND EAST
OF CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGHEST RISK APPEARS TO BE DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AS VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 70S DEW
POINTS ADVECTS INLAND FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 
EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE FARTHER NORTH...BUT AT LEAST RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST WITH STRONGER CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF
SYSTEM INTO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL UPSTREAM...SURFACE FRONT
WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/ GEORGIA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG/EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
TODAY. AIR MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THIS FEATURE...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AS HIGHER TERRAIN HEATS DURING THE MID DAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...ROTATING AROUND NORTHEAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW...WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. 
HOWEVER...A SHEAR AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON/WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IDAHO
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.  THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT OVER A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF THE WEST WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF ISOLATED VIGOROUS STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS AND SOME
HAIL.

SOMEWHAT BETTER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EAST OF
RIDGE AXIS...IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  WARM ADVECTION
REGIME BENEATH CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO DESTABILIZATION AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS BY
LATE AFTERNOON.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG  ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.  ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BEFORE DIMINISHING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..KERR/JEWELL.. 08/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.