[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140044
SWODY1
SPC AC 140042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
RTN 15 E RTN 50 SW CAO 25 NW TCC 35 SW TCC 60 W CVS ROW CNM 20 N GDP
30 NE ALM 20 E SAF 45 WSW RTN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
FMY 30 SSE AGR 30 NNE AGR 40 NW AGR 55 S GNV JAX 15 E SAV 10 SE FLO
25 NE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PFN 25 ESE PFN
50 NE MCN AVL SHD ABE 10 W ALB 25 N PBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW RAL 15 NNE LAX
30 NE SBA 25 SSW BFL 55 NNE BFL 50 SSW TVL 35 SE MFR DLS PUW 10 SE
27U ENV 15 NNW MLF 15 N PGA 20 NNE GUP 4SL DEN SNY IML 10 SE GCK GAG
SPS MWL BWD BGS P07 25 SSE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO....

...EASTERN SEABOARD...
HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG AN
AXIS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WHILE MOST SIGNIFICANT
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS NOW ACCELERATING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO QUEBEC...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE IS EVIDENT DIGGING TOWARD
BASE OF TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.  THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
HURRICANE CHARLEY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL PROGRESS NORTH/EAST OF ORLANDO INTO
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF DAYTONA BEACH BY
03-04Z...BEFORE PROGRESSING OFFSHORE.  RISK OF TORNADOES WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADIC ACTIVITY NORTH/EAST OF CIRCULATION AS
IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

FARTHER NORTH...REMNANTS OF BONNIE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE RHODE
ISLAND/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CAPE COD AREA BETWEEN 03-06Z.  GIVEN
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS AND WEAK CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...AT LEAST LOW RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST WITH THIS FEATURE.

...WESTERN STATES...
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SOUTH/EAST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN /NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS SUPPORTED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING.  ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/SOME
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...
PARTICULARLY WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
NEW MEXICO...AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA.  THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 08/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.