[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131629
SWODY1
SPC AC 131627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
PUB 35 ENE PUB 15 SW LAA 35 WNW PVW 20 N INK 20 N GDP 30 NE ALM SAF
45 WSW PUB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
CTY 25 NNW SAV 40 ENE FLO 25 SE OAJ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S
JFK 15 N POU 15 NNW PSF 20 WSW EEN 20 S PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PFN 50 NE MCN
20 E AVL 10 SSW SHD 35 WSW PSB ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW RAL 15 NNE LAX
30 NE SBA 25 SSW BFL 55 NNE BFL 50 SSW TVL 35 SE MFR 50 SE OLM 40 NW
YKM 55 NNW BOI 50 SW ENV 40 ENE BCE 20 S MTJ 40 NNE EGE 20 N LAR 25
NW BFF AIA 15 E LBF 10 SSE RSL 50 SSW EMP 30 NNW MLC 45 WNW TYR 30
SE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE FL PENINSULA NWD ACROSS
THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT....

...FL PENINSULA...
HURRICANE CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE FL GULF
COAST THIS EVENING IN THE SRQ TO PIE AREA...AND CONTINUE INTO N FL
OVERNIGHT /REFER TO LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION/.  THE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS NE OF THE CENTER ARE NOW
SPREADING NWD ACROSS S FL...AND SHOULD REACH CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON.  BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER S FL ARE ALLOWING SURFACE
HEATING BETWEEN THE RAIN BANDS /SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING IN
THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS/...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING
TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG OVER S FL.  WIND FIELDS AND
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER SRN/CENTRAL FL
AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...THUS THE THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NWD INTO CENTRAL
FL THIS AFTERNOON...AND N FL TONIGHT.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
DEEP MOIST PLUME PERSIST ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH MUCAPE VALUES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG GIVEN THE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BUT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. HOWEVER...40-50 KT
SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50
KT.  THE COMBINATION OF RICH MOISTURE...WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.  THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...SHOULD
BE FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE PATH OF THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE.

...SE ATLANTIC COAST...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE HAVE MOVED NEWD OFF THE NC
COAST AS OF MID MORNING...WITH WLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SOME
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS. 
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN WILL SPREAD NWD ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF THE BONNIE REMNANTS...WHICH WILL TEND TO
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY FROM SE GA TO ERN
NC.  BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE RICHER TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD SPREAD BACK NWD/NWWD ACROSS THE GA/SC/NC COASTS IN ADVANCE OF
THE HURRICANE. THE PRESENCE OF A NNE-SSW SURFACE BOUNDARY AND RICH
MOISTURE...ALONG WITH MODEST/INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR LATE IN THE
PERIOD...COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO TONIGHT. 

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BENEATH 7
C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  THIS MODERATE
INSTABILITY...IN COMBINATION WITH 25-35 KT NWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW...WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN NM
AND SRN CO...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.