[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130530
SWODY1
SPC AC 130528

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ALS
COS LAA 20 E DHT TCC LVS SAF 55 SSW ALS ALS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW
CTY 55 N AYS 45 ESE CAE RDU 45 W RIC BWI 15 E MSV 15 WSW BDL 25 SSW
GON.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CEW 35 W AVL
25 NNW SSU 35 WSW ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S VBG 30 NNW BFL
30 ENE SCK 40 SW MFR 25 WSW SEA 45 E SEA 15 SSW BKE 45 NE EKO 25 E
DPG 15 SE MTJ 40 NNE EGE 20 N LAR 25 NW BFF AIA 10 WNW MCK 40 SSW
RSL 15 SE HUT 30 ENE PNC 35 WSW MKO 35 SSE DAL 30 SE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH MID/NRN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS....

DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...MODELS SUGGEST
SHARP UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM
THE COLORADO VALLEY INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...UPPER
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. 
IN BETWEEN...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
 HOWEVER... MOST SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION...RAPIDLY ACCELERATING INTO QUEBEC BY EARLY SATURDAY.

...EASTERN SEABOARD...
IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH...INTENSIFYING MID/HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING...AHEAD OF
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AXIS...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE VICINITY OF
THE APPALACHIANS TODAY.  MOIST SUBTROPICAL BELT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AS WELL...BECOMING GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST.

EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...STRONGER MEAN FLOW/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF BONNIE WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.  THIS WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F OCCURS.  RISK OF HAIL APPEARS MINIMAL IN
TROPICAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN A THREAT IN MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTION.

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE
CHARLEY AS CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKS NORTHWARD...JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. 
BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY EXTREMELY MOIST WITH MID 70S TO NEAR 80F
DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA.  VERY BUOYANT SURFACE-BASED
AIR MASS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER.  RISK OF TORNADOES
LIKELY WILL PERSIST DESPITE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS SYSTEM TURNS INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.

...WESTERN STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TODAY...ASIDE FROM INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS.  WITH STRONG HEATING
BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.

BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING RISK OF ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS...APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER WEAK JET
STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW EAST OF
UPPER RIDGE.  FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE THIS EVENING.

..KERR/BANACOS.. 08/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.