[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130106
SWODY1
SPC AC 130104

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4CR 30
SW LVS 40 SSE RTN 10 ESE CAO 35 SW GAG CSM 15 WSW OKC 35 WSW ADM 45
WSW SPS 65 ESE LBB 15 NE BGS 35 ESE MAF FST 35 S GDP 50 ESE ALM 4CR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
SRQ 50 ENE FMY 30 S MIA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
SSI 70 ESE MCN 10 NW CAE 20 ESE GSO 25 SSE CHO DOV 45 SE DOV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PMD BFL 50 NE
MER RBL 35 ENE CEC 10 NNE SLE OLM 30 SSE BLI 65 W 4OM YKM 50 W BNO
4LW 35 NE SVE 15 SE NFL 40 N TPH MLF 75 S 4BL 50 NE GUP 4SL 35 WNW
ALS GUC 4FC LIC LAA 50 SSE DDC PNC MLC 25 NW PRX 10 S DAL 10 WNW SEP
25 SE ABI 45 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BVE MOB MGM 20
SE ANB ATL TRI 30 WNW BLF 35 NNW SHD CXY 25 WNW EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
FL PEN AND KEYS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS....

...EASTERN SEABOARD...
TROPICAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION...AROUND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
AXIS WHICH REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  REMNANTS OF
BONNIE...NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF STRONGER SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES OVERNIGHT.  FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER TO THE
SOUTH...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT
HURRICANE CHARLEY IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO
THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

BEST RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH CHARLEY...AND
POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE KEY WEST AREA BY
13/06-09Z.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN BUOYANT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES STRENGTHEN
WITH APPROACH OF CIRCULATION CENTER.

DEW POINTS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CAROLINAS.  HOWEVER...INCREASE INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S APPEARS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS CIRCULATION CENTER OF BONNIE RAPIDLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.  SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SAVANNAH GA...IS PROGGED EAST OF COLUMBIA SC THROUGH THE RALEIGH NC
AREA INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST VA BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN TO THE WEST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS
IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF BAJA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE
CASCADES.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
ANOTHER DIGGING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ROCKIES...APPEAR TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ONGOING VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.  MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE WEST OF
LUBBOCK TX INTO THE ROSWELL NM AREA NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE NOCTURNAL
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...RISK OF AT LEAST LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EVOLVES/ADVANCES SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE PECOS VALLEY.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE COLD POOL AND MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF FAIRLY QUICK COOLING OF
BOUNDARY LAYER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 08/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.