[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 122005
SWODY1
SPC AC 122005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
0305 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
DMN 20 SE 4SL 40 NNE ALS 30 W GCK 40 SW TUL 20 E ADM 45 WSW ABI 35
NW DRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
TLH 30 N AGS 20 N GSO 30 E HGR 20 NE MSV EWB 25 SE EWB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 4OM 40 WNW PDT
65 NNW BNO 55 SSE 4LW 10 NNW RNO 30 ESE BIH 55 NE LAS 25 E SGU 35
SSW 4BL 35 SSE MTJ 45 WNW 4FC 25 SSE CYS 15 S MCK 45 SSE BIE OJC 20
ENE UMN 40 SSW HOT 30 S TXK 20 WSW BPT 30 NE GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW MOB GAD 30 NE
CSV 35 NNW JKL 30 SW UNI 35 NE JHW 25 NW ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SMX 15 ESE SJC
45 E ACV 15 NW SLE 30 SE CLM 35 NW BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN
GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NM/SERN CO/WRN OK/ AND WRN
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL US WILL DEEPEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE,
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE SW US AS WELL AS ALONG ERN SEABOARD
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM BONNIE HAS MADE LANDFALL
AT 18Z. 
  
..PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
  
BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE ERN STATES TODAY. T.S. BONNIE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE
WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCELERATING THIS SYSTEM NNEWD ACROSS
THE SRN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.  SURFACE FRONT
LOCATED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NEARLY
PARALLEL.
  
CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S/ FROM THE NERN GULF TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF TORNADOES...REACHING SERN
VA BY 12Z SATURDAY.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...REFER TO LATEST
NHC GUIDANCE AND WATCHES/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MESO-LOW AS IT MOVES NNEWD ALONG SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH CNTRL NC AND INTO VA. 
  
LATER TONIGHT...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONT ACROSS THE LOWER FL KEYS
AND SWRN FL PENINSULA AS HURRICANE CHARLEY MOVES NWWD JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LOWER FL KEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
  
OTHERWISE...FARTHER NORTH FROM NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW
ENGLAND...WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING NEWD ALONG THE JET WILL
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THREAT FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
  
  ...NM/SERN CO/WRN OK/ AND WRN TX...
  
EXISTING WEAK SURFACE LOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT
OVER NM...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH CONTD SURFACE HEATING...
OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND PASSAGE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS. MLCAPE WITH VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. INCREASING SLY LLJ NOSING INTO SERN NM WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TONIGHT WITH MOVEMENT TO THE ESE.  VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

..AFWA.. 08/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.