[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121625
SWODY1
SPC AC 121624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
1124 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
DMN 20 WNW TCS 35 ESE GNT 20 NW 4SL 20 NW ALS 30 ENE PUB 40 E LAA 25
SSE LBL 35 NNW CDS 60 ESE LBB 25 ENE BGS 50 S MAF 25 ENE MRF 40 SW
MRF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
CEW 20 ESE CSG 30 SSE AND 25 SSW CLT 25 ESE DAN 10 W RIC 10 E NHK 20
E SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW 4OM 10 NW EPH
65 NNW BNO 65 SE 4LW 30 WNW LOL 15 NW TPH 40 NNE DRA 55 S SGU 55 SE
U17 40 SSE CNY 15 ENE GJT 20 N 4FC 35 E FCL 35 S IML 45 WSW HLC 35
WSW HUT 10 N CNU 45 E BVO 30 NNW MLC ADM 30 SSE FTW 65 SSW TYR 40 SW
SHV 20 NW MLU 20 WSW GWO 35 E TUP 25 SW HSV 25 N CHA 45 SE LOZ 25 SW
CRW 35 ESE PKB 25 SSW DUJ 40 ENE JHW 25 E BUF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN
GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS NM/SERN CO/WRN
OK/ AND WRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE CNTRL US WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER TODAY.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE JET
STREAM, ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE SW US AS WELL AS ALONG ERN
SEABOARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE BY 18Z ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ERN GULF AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

...PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE ERN STATES TODAY.  CURRENT NHC GUIDANCE INDICATED
T.S.BONNIE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE AROUND
18Z...WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCELERATING THIS SYSTEM NNEWD
ACROSS THE SRN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.  A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY FROM THE SERN
TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  SURFACE FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AS
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NEARLY PARALLEL.

CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S/ FROM THE NERN GULF TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES.  GREATEST THREAT WILL BE JUST EAST OF
CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AND THEN TRACKS NNEWD ACROSS
SE GA AND INTO CNTRL SC LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN
FAST MOVEMENT OF THE THEN REMNANTS OF T.S. BONNIE...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF
TORNADOES...REACHING SERN VA BY 12Z SATURDAY.  FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...REFER TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE AND WATCHES/MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS.

LATER TONIGHT...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONT ACROSS THE LOWER FL KEYS
AND SWRN FL PENINSULA AS HURRICANE CHARLEY MOVES NWWD JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LOWER FL KEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...FARTHER NORTH FROM NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW
ENGLAND...WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING NEWD ALONG THE JET WILL
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.

...NM/SERN CO/WRN OK/ AND WRN TX...

EXISTING WEAK SURFACE LOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT
OVER NM...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH CONTD SURFACE HEATING...
OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND PASSAGE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
ENHANCED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. 
CAPES WITH VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG ARE INDICATED ON THE LATEST
ETA MODEL RUN. INCREASING SLY LLJ NOSING INTO SERN NM WILL FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TONIGHT WITH MOVEMENT TO THE SE.  VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..AFWA.. 08/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.