[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121303
SWODY1
SPC AC 121301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW
ABQ 15 E 4SL 45 S ALS 10 N EHA 45 S LBL 40 NE PVW 45 NE HOB 10 ESE
INK 20 NNW MRF 10 SE ELP 45 SSE TCS 30 S ONM 10 NW ABQ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
PNS 20 N DHN 30 WNW MCN 25 E SPA 10 NW DAN 30 SW NHK WAL ...CONT...
10 E DAB 45 SW ORL 25 NNE FMY 35 SSW MIA 60 SSW MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 35 SSE RAL
20 NNE OXR 20 SE SMX 25 SE SJC 35 ESE SAC 35 WSW SVE 35 NE RBL 30
WSW RBL 55 SSE EKA 35 NE 4BK 25 WNW SLE 15 W CLM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 4OM 25 S YKM
70 ENE 4LW 10 W NFL 55 W TPH 50 NW DRA 30 WSW P38 15 W DRO 40 E GJT
40 ENE CAG 15 NNE FCL 50 ENE LIC 55 ESE GLD 45 W CNK GRI 10 NE OLU
50 ENE OMA 25 E LWD 45 NW COU 25 NE SGF 25 NNW UMN 35 WSW BVO 25 SSW
FSI 35 S SJT 40 ESE DRT 35 SW COT NIR 20 NW PSX 25 N GLS 25 SW HEZ
40 SW CSV 25 NW CRW DUJ 30 NW SYR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
FL KEYS AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG ERN NOAM TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER TODAY... AS
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

...PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE ERN STATES TODAY.  CURRENT NHC GUIDANCE INDICATED T.S.
BONNIE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE AROUND
18Z...WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCELERATING THIS SYSTEM NNEWD
ACROSS THE SRN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.  A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY FROM THE SERN
TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  SURFACE FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY...AS SHARPENING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACKS MEAN FLOW.

CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S/ FROM THE NERN GULF TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  GREATEST THREAT WILL BE JUST EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER
AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AND THEN TRACKS INTO SRN GA/SRN SC LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT OF THE THEN REMNANTS
OF T.S. BONNIE...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED TORNADO POTENTIAL REACHING SERN VA BY 12Z
SATURDAY.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...REFER TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE
AND WATCHES/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

LATER TONIGHT...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER FL
KEYS AND SWRN FL PENINSULA AS HURRICANE CHARLEY MOVES NWD JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE LOWER FL KEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...FARTHER NORTH FROM NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW
ENGLAND...ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW
LOCATED OVER ERN TN...AND ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL JET 
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
WILL SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...40 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN
BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.

...ERN NM/SRN CO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW
LOCATED OVER THE MID MO VALLEY...WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REACHING THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A RESIDUAL MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS BENEATH A
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/ BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
REGION.  UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM/SRN CO AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 30-40 KT OF NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH ESELY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

INCREASING SLY LLJ NOSING INTO SERN NM WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN MCS TONIGHT...WITH MOVEMENT SEWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION.  

...PORTIONS OF AZ...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ.  15-20 KT OF NNELY TO
ELY MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHERE POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS WILL
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS/BANACOS.. 08/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.