[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120534
SWODY1
SPC AC 120532

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
SRQ 25 NNE FMY 50 ESE FMY 35 SW MIA 65 ENE EYW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
JAX GNV 35 S CTY ...CONT... 30 SSE CEW DHN 35 W MCN 40 S CLT 40 ENE
DAN 10 SSE RIC 20 E ORF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW
ABQ 15 E 4SL 45 S ALS 15 NW RTN 30 W CAO 20 NNW CVS 15 N HOB 10 ESE
INK 20 NNW MRF 10 SE ELP 45 SSE TCS 30 S ONM 10 NW ABQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 35 SSE RAL
20 NNE OXR 20 SE SMX 25 SE SJC 35 ESE SAC 35 WSW SVE 35 NE RBL 30
WSW RBL 55 SSE EKA 35 NE 4BK 25 WNW SLE 15 W CLM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 4OM 25 S YKM
70 ENE 4LW 10 W NFL 55 W TPH 50 NW DRA 30 WSW P38 15 W DRO 40 E GJT
40 ENE CAG 15 NNE FCL 50 ENE LIC 55 ESE GLD 40 W CNK 20 E LNK 40 NNE
STJ 25 WNW SZL 20 ENE JLN 35 WSW BVO 25 SSW FSI 35 S SJT 40 ESE DRT
35 SW COT NIR 20 NW PSX 25 N GLS 25 SW HEZ 40 SW CSV 25 NW CRW DUJ
30 NW SYR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
FL KEYS AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF
ERN NEW MEXICO....

MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  SHARP UPPER RIDGE
AXES WILL PERSIST...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ANOTHER FR0M THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...EITHER SIDE OF A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME.  THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
NORTHWARD ACCELERATION OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
 SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND WILL CONTINUE INLAND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA DURING
THE DAY...AS SHORT WAVE DIGS TOWARD BASE OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF STATES.

GIVEN INFLUX OF LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL..NEAR/EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AS WELL AS IN PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...RISK OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE CHARLEY.

OTHERWISE...IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES...AND AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION MAY
REDEVELOP FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. 
THOUGH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...BELT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL ENHANCE MEAN FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES.  THIS MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL...IN
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS
NEAR/SOUTH AND EAST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHERE STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES/AND HIGH
PLAINS.  OROGRAPHY LIKELY WILL BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR
ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE.

DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE WILL SUPPORT
RISK FOR HAIL/DOWNBURSTS AS CONVECTION SLOWLY PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD
OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BETTER
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
ACROSS THIS REGION BY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...A
FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.


OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND CASCADES...AS LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC MOISTURE
RETURNS NORTHWARD WEST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

..KERR/BANACOS.. 08/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.