[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120050
SWODY1
SPC AC 120048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
CNM GDP ELP 35 WNW ALM 15 SSE ABQ 30 SE SAF 15 WNW RTN 25 NNW CAO 20
S CAO 20 SSE CVS 30 ENE CNM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CZZ 25 WNW TRM
RAL 45 E NID 10 SSW DRA 25 S P38 BCE 60 SSW 4BL GUP GNT 4SL ALS 20
SSE ASE 30 SW LAR CYS IML GCK AMA 10 S LBB BGS BWD 15 NNE SEP DAL 10
WNW PRX HOT MEM BWG LOZ 5I3 MGW 10 NNW BFD 35 ENE ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DVL 60 NNE ATY
BKX MHE 40 NE PIR MBG BIS 55 WSW DVL 15 SE DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NM...

...SE CO/ERN NM...
AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN WITH ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS
SE CO/ERN NM THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY PROPAGATING S/SE
REMAINDER OF NIGHT INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST OWING TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY/MODERATE SHEAR. EWD EXTENT OF PROPAGATION/SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

REFERENCE MCD 1967 AND SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION/WATCH UPDATES
FOR LATEST SHORT TERM INFORMATION.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WRN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT TSTMS REMAINDER OF EVENING FROM ERN PORTIONS OF
NY/PA EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND STATES. IN SPITE OF STRONG AMBIENT WIND
FIELDS...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
ONLY LOW END WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES ARE PRUDENT REMAINDER OF NIGHT.

...AZ...
TSTMS ONGOING INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SCNTRL AZ. IN SPITE OF
WEAK N/NE STEERING FLOW /10-15 KTS PER 00Z FGZ SOUNDING/...APPARENT
DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOL/MODEST DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
ISOLD DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS
FROM HIGHER TERRAIN ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR.

...LA/FAR SE TX/NRN MS...
ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. COMBINATION
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS ISOLD
DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

...ERN GULF COAST...
WITH CONTINUED NELY MOVEMENT...LATEST NHC GUIDANCE PREDICTS TROPICAL
STORM BONNIE TO MOVE ASHORE FL PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED PERIPHERAL WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS MINI SUPERCELLS /WITH
ISOLD TORNADO THREAT/ IN OUTER BANDS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA NEAR END OF PERIOD.

..GUYER/KERR.. 08/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.