[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 112005
SWODY1
SPC AC 112003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
BML BID ...CONT... 10 ENE ORF 50 WSW ORF 35 N GSO 20 S MRB 30 NE
MSS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
FST 75 SSW GDP ELP 20 SW SAF ALS 20 S LAR 20 SW SNY LAA DHT 50 W LBB
30 W FST.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACT 20
S PRX UOX JAN POE HOU 30 ENE SAT ACT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL
20 S PMD 20 SE EDW 30 ESE DAG 40 NNW EED 10 SSE SGU 10 SSW MLF 30 SE
U24 20 E PUC 50 ESE VEL 40 E RWL 50 SSW DGW 30 WSW BFF 30 WSW RSL 35
NNW END 35 N OKC 50 SW TUL 20 N FYV 25 S POF 25 ENE CKV 35 SSE LEX
30 N HTS 25 N PKB 30 NNW HLG 10 WNW YNG 40 NE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 NW ATY
25 NW HON 45 NNE PIR 40 WNW MBG 30 NE DIK 80 NE ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/WRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN
NY SWWD TO ERN VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN TX TO WRN
MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF ERN CO AND ERN NM...FAR
W TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE...AS
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS NEWD FROM CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER
SPEED MAX DIGS SEWD FROM DAKOTAS.  ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE IS
NOW ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NY SWWD DOWN APPALACHIANS TO TN VALLEY AND
NWRN MS...THEN WSWWD TOWARD WRN-MOST PORTIONS TX/NM BORDER.  THIS
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC
REGION...SEWD OVER TN VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY AREAS...AND SWD ACROSS
TX.  FRONTAL ZONE IS PRECEDED BY PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WINDSHIFT LINE
OVER ERN NY AND E-CENTRAL PA BEHIND WHICH SFC DEW POINTS DROP FROM
UPPER 60S TO 50S AND LOWER 60S..AND WIND VEERS TO SWLY.

...NERN CONUS...
STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ARE GENERALLY MOVING ENEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF
PREFRONTAL TROUGH.  TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACT AS EFFECTIVE WRN
BOUND FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL BECAUSE OF VEERED FLOW AND DRYING TO ITS
W.  MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...FROM LINE SEGMENTS AND
SMALL BOWS.  HAIL POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN GREATEST FROM DISCRETE
STORMS...WHICH ARE IN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. A
FEW TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE.  18Z ALB RAOB -- WITH SOME QUALITY
CONTROL APPLIED TO REMOVE BOGUS WET-BULB COOLING EFFECT BETWEEN
500-700 MB -- YIELDED ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG MLCAPE.  THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RANGE OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IN
MOST AREAS WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS -- ANALYZED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF PRESENT CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR.  REF WWS 738...739
AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS OVER
OUTLOOK AREA.  POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT
01Z...WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED ENOUGH BY DIABATIC
COOLING TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE SBCAPE.

...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN NW-SE BANDS OVER
MOUNTAINS -- ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL WITH MEAN FLOW VECTOR.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ACROSS ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND HIGH
PLAINS OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
HAIL/WIND.  STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EVIDENT FROM NERN
NM NWD THROUGH S-CENTRAL CO...WHERE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES AND
150-200 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH IS EXPECTED...BASED ON PROFILER DATA AND
MODEL FCST HODOGRAPHS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961 AND WW 740
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING NEAR TERM THREAT.

SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING SUPERCELLS EXTENDS ACROSS ERN NM AS
WELL...WHERE STRONG VEERING CONTRIBUTES TO LOOPED LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT CELL MOTIONS TOWARD
S.  STRONGER UPSLOPE ASCENT AND RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RELATIVE TO FARTHER N INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
TSTMS BY 00Z.  REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963 FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS. 
ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO SWD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS WITH WIND DAMAGE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATION.

...S-CENTRAL/SERN TX...NRN LA...
VIS/RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC ANALYSES SHOW PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND EFFECTIVE FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH
ONGOING TSTM CLUSTER OVER AR/LA BORDER REGION. NEWER DEVELOPMENT
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL TX SHOULD MOVE SEWD TOWARD UPPER TX COAST AND WRN
LA THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON.  POCKETS OF 70S F SFC DEW POINTS
WITH 2500 J/KG MLCAPES ARE EVIDENT OVER THIS REGION...BUT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATING PREDOMINANT MULTICELL CHARACTER
TO CONVECTION. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE -- WITH MAIN THREAT BEING BEFORE APPROXIMATELY 02Z. 
REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962 FOR NOWCAST OVER CENTRAL TX.

...ERN GULF COAST...
LATEST NHC GUIDANCE PREDICTS TS BONNIE TO MOVE ASHORE FL PANHANDLE 
EARLY DAY-2...HOWEVER PERIPHERAL WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS
MINI-SUPERCELLS IN ASSOCIATED OUTER BANDS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD. 
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL TORNADO PROBABILITIES THIS AREA FOR
NOW.  IF THIS CYCLONE ACCELERATES OR WIND FIELDS EXPAND BEYOND
CURRENT GUIDANCE...SITUATION SIMILAR TO THAT DESCRIBED IN DAY-2
OUTLOOK COULD SPREAD INTO THIS AREA EARLY.

..EDWARDS.. 08/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.