[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111617
SWODY1
SPC AC 111615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
BML ISP ...CONT... 15 S WAL 40 N ORF 40 WSW RIC 35 NNE LYH 25 SW MRB
30 W ART.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE
AUS 50 NE DRT 25 N P07 55 N MRF 20 NNE ALM 20 SW SAF 50 S 4FC 20 E
DEN 30 NNE LIC 35 N LAA 35 S DHT 25 WNW LBB 25 SW SEP 35 NNW TYR 20
WNW ELD 35 N ESF 20 NNW ESF 40 NW BPT 45 W HOU 40 SSE AUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL
20 S PMD 20 SE EDW 30 ESE DAG 40 NNW EED 10 SSE SGU 10 SSW MLF 30 SE
U24 20 E PUC 50 ESE VEL 40 E RWL 50 SSW DGW 30 WSW BFF 30 WSW RSL 35
NNW END 35 N OKC 50 SW TUL 20 N FYV 25 S POF 25 ENE CKV 35 SSE LEX
30 N HTS 25 N PKB 30 NNW HLG 10 WNW YNG 40 NE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 NW ATY
25 NW HON 45 NNE PIR 40 WNW MBG 30 NE DIK 80 NE ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHEASTERN STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO
LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
WELL ESTABLISHED UNSEASONABLY STRONG LARGE SCALE TROUGH CENTRAL AND
ERN U.S. WITH A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL WIND MAXS ROTATING
THRU TROUGH POSITION.  60KT 500 MB WIND MAX/SW TROUGH MOVES FROM OH
VALLEY NEWD TO ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE UPSTREAM WIND
MAX DROPS SWD THRU NRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY BY 12Z THU.

AT THE SURFACE PRIMARY LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC WITH COLD FRONT
TRAILING SSWWD THRU WRN NY/PA AND THEN SWWD ACROSS AR. OVERNIGHT
SEVERE MCS HAS PUSHED PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY S INTO N TX EXTENDING
WWD INTO ERN NM WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS SRN PLAINS SOME DISTANCE.

T.S. BONNIE IS FORECASTED TO TRACK NEWD TO REACH GULF COAST AFTER
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...NERN U.S...

REF MCD 1958

AIR MASS TO THE E OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WRN NY/PA BECOMING
PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE.  GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPES CURRENTLY CLIMBING TO 2000 J/KG EXTENDS FROM ERY NY SWD TO E
OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
MID/UPR SPEED MAX...35-40KT OF SHEAR DEVELOPS DURING AFTERNOON
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NERN  U.S. THERE ALSO IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
VEERING TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS DURING AFTERNOON. 
WITH DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKENING CIN...STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING
WINDS GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG FLOW AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF FAVORABLE SHEAR ERN NY SWD THRU ERN PA.

...HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SWD OVER THE PLAINS ON THE
W SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  WITH STRONG AFTERNOON
HEATING....BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL TURN UPSLOPE ELY/SELY FROM ERN
NM NWD INTO SERN CO.  GIVEN THE 30-40 KT OF UPPER NWLY FLOW...SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
 STORMS WILL FORM OVER/JUST E OF HIGH TERRAIN ERN CO/NM AND THEN
MOVE/PROPAGATE S/SSEWD THRU SERN CO/ERN NM.  STABILIZING INFLUENCE
OF POLAR AIR MASS WILL LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT FURTHER
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
ALONG WITH THE MDT/STG INSTABILITY...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

...SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
DEVELOP A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EWD ACROSS TX INTO LA THIS
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...PULSE SEVERE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY MODE...LIMITING THE AMOUNT  OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF STORMS.  SEVERE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...LOCAL
DOWNBURSTS.

...ERN GULF COAST...

REF NHC ADVISORY WTNT22

OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF T.S. BONNIE COULD BE MOVING ONSHORE LATER
TONIGHT VICINITY FL PANHANDLE. PRIMARY THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH
BONNIE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU.

..HALES/GUYER.. 08/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.