[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110045
SWODY1
SPC AC 110044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
AMA 40 SSW DHT 25 SSW CAO 35 ENE TAD 30 NW LIC 30 W AKO 35 E AKO 25
ESE DDC 25 SW P28 40 ESE GAG 50 WNW CSM 15 NW AMA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
LBB 45 S CVS 65 W CVS LVS 35 N 4FC 25 ENE LAR 40 NNE CYS 20 SE BFF
25 ESE IML HUT 10 NNW PNC 30 ENE OKC 30 ENE FSI 40 S LTS 25 ESE LBB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
EFK 15 ENE ALB 35 SSE MSV 30 WSW ILG 35 WSW DCA 15 NNW SSU 25 SSW
CRW 20 NNW CRW 20 WSW MGW 15 N PSB 25 W ITH 15 W ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW IPL 25 SW EED
55 NE IGM 40 N 4BL 10 ENE EGE 45 SSE RWL 30 N RWL 35 NNE CPR 40 NE
RAP 20 N 9V9 20 N OMA 30 SSW STL 25 NE PAH 45 S SDF 50 ENE LEX 25 W
HLG 15 W BFD 20 SSW ROC 45 NNE ROC ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 40 ENE DAN
20 NE GSO 30 E CLT 40 NE CAE 25 SSE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE BGS 20 SW MAF
35 ESE FST 45 ENE P07 25 SE TPL 20 N POE 25 N ESF 10 NW MLU ELD 10
NNW FTW 15 NNE BGS.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN US...

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/SRN PLAINS...
AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING IN NE CO AND THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
INSTABILITY AXIS IS LOCATED IN ERN CO EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE AND NW OK WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SW
KS. THIS FEATURE IS A KEY FACTOR WHICH WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MCS ORGANIZING IN NE CO
WILL PROPAGATE SSEWD ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE MCS TO EXPAND AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS IN FAR ERN CO AND FAR WRN KS.

VAD WIND PROFILES IN ERN CO CURRENTLY SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF 45 TO 55 KT AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
STORMS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. STRONGLY VEERED WIND PROFILES
ACROSS SE CO...SW KS AND THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
A FEW TORNADOES AS THE MCS EXPANDS THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS OVERNIGHT. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD
TRANSITION TO INTO A MULTICELL WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX GRADUALLY ORGANIZES INTO A LINEAR MCS AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
FAR SE CO AND SW KS. THE MCS SHOULD REACH RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...NORTHEASTERN US...
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS WRN NY AND NWRN PA. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE LOCATED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH 1000
TO 1500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELLS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WHICH WILL FAVOR WIND
DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

...ARIZONA...
A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ARE ONGOING IN SCNTRL AZ. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD ACROSS SRN AZ. MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM 750 TO 1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...INVERTED-V PROFILES
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF WIND DAMAGE
THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..BROYLES.. 08/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.