[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100053
SWODY1
SPC AC 100051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
CLE 30 SSE FDY 30 NW DAY 25 NE HUF 10 WNW MTO 15 ESE SPI 10 W BMI 50
S CGX 15 W BEH 25 S MBL 35 E ESC 60 ENE MQT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
AMA 20 SE TCC 45 W TCC 30 NNE LVS 30 WNW PUB 35 ESE DEN 25 E AKO 15
SSW MCK 10 NNE RSL 30 NNE P28 10 NW END 40 ENE CSM 30 NNE CDS 30 S
AMA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ART 45 SW ELM
25 N EKN 25 N 5I3 15 NE HOP PBF 15 ENE ELD 25 SE ELD 35 NNE MLU 10
ENE GLH TUP 15 ESE MSL 35 SW CHA 30 SE RMG 30 E CSG 25 N MGR 35 WNW
JAX 15 SE JAX ...CONT... 10 SSW IPL 20 ESE EED 50 WSW GCN 15 ESE GCN
80 ESE PGA 10 WSW DRO 40 SSE GUC 25 NNW DEN 25 S SNY 45 ENE MCK 35
SW FNB 40 NE MKC 25 S MLI 35 NNE MMO 15 ENE MKE 40 NE GRB 60 NE CMX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ERN CO...WRN KS
AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2000 TO
3000 J/KG WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE DENVER
AREA INTO SW KS.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CO AND
WRN KS AND THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW 40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND MOST OF THIS IS CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. THE DDC 00Z
SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL VEERING AND THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OVER ERN CO AND FAR WRN KS.
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V WIND PROFILES WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT...SPREADING
SEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION.

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND WRN LOWER MI.
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DRIVING THE CONVECTION AND THE
STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS LOWER MI THIS
EVENING. A MID-LEVEL JET MAX PUNCHING INTO SRN LOWER MI IS CREATING
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KT.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...A BROKEN LINE SHOULD DEVELOP. BOWING
SEGMENTS IN THE LINE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. IN
ADDITION...COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14 C WILL
MAKE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

OTHER STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN IND AND CNTRL IL. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN AN AXIS FROM LOWER MI EXTENDING SWWD INTO
ERN MO.  IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE THE SEVERE THREAT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AN EWD TRACK
INTO IND. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

...ARIZONA...
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SE AND CNTRL AR. VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40 TO 50 KT WILL
MAKE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 08/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.