[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110607
SWODY1
SPC AC 110605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
SAT 60 NNW DRT 45 SE GDP 25 NNE ALM 20 SW SAF 40 SW DEN 15 S FCL 40
E FCL 15 SSW AKO 25 NNE LAA 30 NNW AMA 30 WSW CDS 20 N MWL 40 SSW
PRX 40 NE SHV 35 WSW MLU 15 WNW ESF 25 WSW POE 40 SE CLL 15 NE SAT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
BML ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL
20 S PMD 20 SE EDW 30 ESE DAG 40 NNW EED 55 ESE SGU 40 NNE CNY 25 E
RWL 35 SSW DGW 25 SW BFF 30 SW RSL 25 E ICT 10 ENE UMN 30 NNW DYR 30
E CKV 25 S LEX 20 NNW UNI 15 NE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S WAL 40 N ORF RIC
20 SE CHO 25 SW MRB 30 W ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 NW ATY
25 NW HON 45 NNE PIR 40 WNW MBG 30 NE DIK 70 NE ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND SRN ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...CO/ERN NM/W TX...
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY YIELD
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE STORMS SPREADING SSEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY
AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING MAINLY ACROSS
SE CO AND NE NM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH
SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK SSEWD EAST OF THE MTNS. OTHERWISE...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR A LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.

...NORTHEASTERN US...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO NY...PA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR STORM INITIATION. AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE IN THE MTNS ACROSS NY...WRN PA AND WRN VA AROUND MID-DAY.
OTHER ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS
COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WITH SOME TURNING IN THE
LOW-LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS IN THE
LINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NY AND NE PA. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 9.0 C/KM. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

...CNTRL AND ERN TX/WRN LA...
AN MCS CURRENTLY MOVING THOUGH THE OK PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SSEWD AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS NCNTRL TX AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE MCS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF A SWIFTLY
MOVING COLD FRONT AND MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE AT 12Z. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AS SFC HEATING
DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MCS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS E TX AND WRN LA SHOW MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 18Z. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 25 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...VERY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F...WILL
RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE MCS MOVES SSEWD ACROSS CNTRL
TX...E TX AND FAR WRN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DECREASING
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD
RESULT IN A DIMINISHED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF TX.

..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 08/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.