[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 092354
SWODY1
SPC AC 092353

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
CLE 30 SSE FDY MIE CMI 10 SSE PIA 45 WNW MMO 10 W OSH 30 SSW CMX 20
N CMX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CSM
CVS 35 ENE 4CR 20 SSE FCL 35 SW IML HLC 45 W HUT END CSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 15 SSW SYR
45 W MRB BKW JKL HOP 30 SSW DYR PBF ELD 30 NNE MLU TUP MSL CHA 20
NNW ATL 45 NNE DHN 30 WSW VLD 15 N JAX 25 NE JAX ...CONT... 15 ENE
CZZ TRM IGM SGU 35 SSW SLC 45 ESE EVW 35 N GJT 35 NE EGE RWL DGW BFF
LBF 35 S HSI 10 ENE FNB 30 NNE LWD 35 W CID 55 SSW LSE 30 ENE MKT 20
ESE BJI INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM
NERN CO TO NERN NM AND TX PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF MI/LM...PORTIONS
LS...IL...INDIANA...OH...LH...LE...

AMENDED TO ADD ARIZONA IN A 5% FOR WIND DAMAGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT THE SFC WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...WRN CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGE...AND PREDOMINANT NW FLOW ACROSS
GREAT PLAINS.  MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- VERY WELL DEFINED IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN/ONT BOUNDARY REGION -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE
MOVING EWD ACROSS LS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS ERN WI...NWRN IL...NRN
MO...CENTRAL KS...E-CENTRAL CO.  THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY OVER WRN KS AND CO...WHILE MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY
20 KT OVER LM...ERN LS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS MI/WI/IL. FRONT SHOULD
DRIFT SEWD OVER NRN MO.

...GREAT LAKES STATES...
SEVERE TSTM RISK -- WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING ATTM ACROSS NERN WI AND
WRN UPPER MI -- WILL LAST THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EWD
ACROSS REGION. REF SPC WW 723 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
NOWCAST POTENTIAL.

SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER AREAS AROUND LM...EWD ACROSS
LOWER MI AND SWD INTO PORTIONS IL/INDIANA/NWRN OH.  WITH STRONGEST
LOW LEVEL FORCING FARTHER N...RELATIVELY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES.  THIS
ALSO WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...HOWEVER DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CAP AND
POTENTIAL FOR TSTM INITIATION DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  MODIFIED RAOBS
AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM
CENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS IL/INDIANA...ALONG WITH
ABOUT 30-35 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW.  ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL DECREASES
WITH SWWD EXTENT INVOF FRONT...AS BOTH CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WEAKEN...HOWEVER A FEW CELLS NEAR FRONT MAY BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LEVELS WITH INFLOW-LAYER MLCAPES ESTIMATED AROUND 2000-2500
J/KG.

...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASING ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS ERN CO AND WRN
KS.  REF SPC WWS 724...725 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
DETAILS ON NEAR-TERM THREATS.  SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO PROBABILITIES
AND SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK ARE GREATEST INVOF CO PORTION OF SFC FRONT
WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED...SFC TEMPS AND THEREFORE LCLS ARE
LOWEST...HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGEST...AND BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY IS
MAXIMIZED.  LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD
EXTENT...INDICATING LESSER ORGANIZATION AND MORE MULTICELLULAR
CHARACTER TO MOST CONVECTION...THOUGH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG
EXTEND WELL SWD ACROSS TX/OK PANHANDLES.  ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO MCS AND MOVE SEWD TO SWD ACROSS
SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND.

..BROYLES.. 08/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.