[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091252
SWODY1
SPC AC 091250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
CAO 15 N TAD 10 W COS 25 N DEN CYS 40 SW BFF 30 NNE SNY 20 SSW IML
35 S MCK 30 NE LBL 25 SE EHA 25 N CAO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE
CLE 20 WSW CLE 30 SSE FDY 30 ESE LAF CMI 10 SSE PIA 45 WNW MMO 20 E
JVL 40 NE GRB 85 WNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 25 NW BLH 35 W
PRC 75 NNE INW 20 ENE FMN 30 W 4FC 35 WSW CPR 30 NNE MQM 25 S S06 30
NNE 63S ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR 65 ESE LWT 35 SW RAP BUB 25 E GRI 40
NNW FNB 10 N LWD 25 NNE OTM 55 NW DBQ 15 S MSP STC 50 SW BJI 10 W
RRT ...CONT... 25 NNE ART 15 SSW SYR 35 SSE LBE 15 NNW CRW 15 NNE
LEX 20 WSW BWG 20 NW DYR 30 E LIT 30 NE MLU 60 E LUL 20 NW DHN 30 NE
VLD 10 NNE DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A SECOND TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER NRN AB...DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WRN STATES WILL BUILD NWD ACROSS WRN CANADA.  10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A LOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE NW
OVER NRN MN.  TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWD ACROSS WRN WI TO NERN
IA...AND THEN SWWD TO ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE
THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY
SWD INTO CENTRAL KS.

...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...
BAND OF WNWLY 55 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN IL BY 00Z.  SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EWD AND EXTEND FROM THE ERN U.P. OF MI SWWD ACROSS LAKE MI
TO CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL MO BY 00Z.  SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT LOW-MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA.  NEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN WI/FAR
ERN IA SINCE 10Z AND OTHER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS EXTENDING FROM
NRN IL TO LOWER MI AND THE ERN U.P. WILL MOVE EWD AND MAY INITIALLY
INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING ACROSS LOWER MI/IND/NWRN OH.

A MID-LEVEL INTRUSION OF DRY AIR EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS MORNING. 
SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY 18Z ACROSS FAR ERN WI AND NRN IL.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOWER MI/NRN IND INTO NWRN OH...WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS FAVORING BOTH LINE
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT TODAY...AS MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
HAIL POTENTIAL.  SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ESELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT...ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60
OVER ERN CO.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  DESPITE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
UPPER FORCING MECHANISM...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO.  NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SE STORM MOTION...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING
SEVERE AS IT MOVES INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY.  35-40 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...GIVEN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP ESELY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S OVER WRN KS THIS EVENING AS A
30-35 KT SLY LLJ NOSES INTO THIS REGION.  THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD MOVE
TOWARD CENTRAL KS TONIGHT AS THE LLJ VEERS TO SWLY.

..PETERS/TAYLOR.. 08/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.