[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 090541
SWODY1
SPC AC 090540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
CAO 35 ENE TAD COS 25 N DEN CYS 40 SW BFF 25 NNW SNY 20 S IML 40 N
GCK 30 NE LBL 25 SE EHA 35 N CAO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE
CLE 20 WSW CLE 30 SSE FDY 30 ESE LAF CMI BMI 30 S MMO 30 SSE MKE 15
WNW MBL 85 WNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 SSE EED 35 N
INW 20 E FMN 30 SE ASE 30 W 4FC 50 ESE RIW 30 NNE MQM 25 S S06 30
NNE 63S ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR 65 ESE LWT 35 SW RAP 10 SE GRI 30 E
BIE 30 ENE P35 35 NW BRL 20 SW DBQ 45 S LSE 35 WNW STC 35 WNW BJI 10
W RRT ...CONT... 50 W ART 40 E BFD 35 SSE LBE 15 NNW CRW 15 SSW LEX
30 NE HOP 15 WSW DYR 25 NNE PBF 25 SSE PBF 40 NE MLU 60 E LUL 20 NW
DHN 30 NE VLD 10 NNE DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE FRONT IN THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...NEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
LOWER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LOWER MI TODAY AND
SPREAD STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A JET MAX PUNCHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SRN LOWER MI. THE STORMS MAY BUILD SWD INTO NRN IND AND NRN OH BY
EVENING. HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN THE OH
VALLEY DUE TO WEAKER FORCING IN THIS AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE LAKE
ERIE VICINITY.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY WILL LIKELY STALL
OUT AGAINST THE MTNS ACROSS ERN CO. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO SWRN
KS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE SEWD DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SE CO SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...STRONG LOW LEVEL VEERING WILL EXIST WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS
AROUND 30 DEGREES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS AND THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. AN MCS
SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO WRN KS BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE
REGION.

...CNTRL PLAINS AND NRN OZARKS...
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AHEAD A COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD BE ORIENTED FROM CNTRL KS TO CNTRL IL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL HELP INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SRN KS...SCNTRL MO AND CNTRL IL WITH THE
STORMS SPREADING SLOWLY SEWD. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY DECREASE QUICKLY IN INTENSITY AS
INSTABILITY DROPS AFTER SUNSET.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 08/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.