[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091617
SWODY1
SPC AC 091616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE
CLE 20 WSW CLE 30 SSE FDY 30 ESE LAF CMI 10 SSE PIA 45 WNW MMO 20 E
JVL 25 NNE GRB 25 SSE CMX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE
CVS 30 SSE LVS 10 W COS 25 N DEN CYS 40 SW BFF 30 NNE SNY 20 ESE IML
35 S MCK 10 WNW GAG 55 NNW CDS 55 NE CVS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CZZ 25 SE TRM
45 NNW BLH 10 E IGM 20 WNW CDC 35 E U24 35 S VEL 45 WNW EGE 35 NE
EGE 15 SSE LAR 55 WNW BFF 15 NNE AIA 30 SSW MHN 20 NNW EAR 40 W BIE
10 ENE FNB 30 NNE LWD 35 W CID 55 SSW LSE 30 SW RST 30 NNW MKT 30 E
AXN 30 NNW BJI 10 ENE RRT ...CONT... 25 NNE ART 15 SSW SYR 45 W MRB
35 SW EKN 35 SE LEX 20 SW BWG 30 SSW DYR 10 NNE PBF 20 NNE ELD 35
NNW MLU 20 SSE GLH 40 SSW MSL 25 SSW CHA 20 NNW ATL 45 NNE DHN 30
WSW VLD 15 N JAX 25 NE JAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SWRN STATES WHILE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG S/WV TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NRN PLAINS AND THEN
EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ONE S/WV TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM UPR
LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS LS WILL SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION TODAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM
SURFACE LOW MOVING NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN LS. FRONT WILL CROSS MI
THIS AFTERNOON AND TRAIL SWWD INTO NRN MO AND WWD THRU KS TO ERN CO.


ANOTHER STRONGER S/WV TROUGH/UPPER LOW DROPPING SEWD THRU CENTRAL
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL SPREAD INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.

NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM ROCKIES TO MS VALLEY ENHANCING THE SHEAR
PROFILES AND SPREADING STEEP LAPSE RATES EWD ACROSS THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER OF HIGH PLAINS TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE.

...WRN GREAT LAKES...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM WRN UPR MI TO SWRN WI WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
ALL OF MI INTO NRN IN BY LATE THIS EVENING.  SUFFICIENT HEATING IN
WAKE OF FIRST BAND OF STORMS NOW MOVING EWD INTO NRN LWR MI TO ALLOW
AIR MASS TO BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
FRONT. WITH MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40-45 KT COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM MN...STRONG SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  REF MCD 1929. 
PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR  WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS FOR
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW AND CYCLONIC
VORTICITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS NRN MI THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
FAVORABLE NWLY FLOW SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF CO/WRN KS SWD INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES. AIR MASS IS QUITE
MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S WWD TO FRONT RANGE. ENHANCING THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS LOCATED N OF
PALMER DIVIDE E OF DEN AND SERN CO.  WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 2000
J/KG OR HIGHER BY MID AFTERNOON...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN ERN CO INCLUDING IN THE
AREAS OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE CIRCULATIONS. WITH
35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...COUPLED WITH A STRONGLY VEERING
PROFILE...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY.  IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL
THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY.  STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AND DROP S/SEWD INTO TX/OX PANHANDLES
BY THIS EVENING WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 08/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.