[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 090057
SWODY1
SPC AC 090055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW
CMX 20 E RHI 40 WNW OSH 20 E DBQ 30 NE IRK 20 NE MKC 15 WSW EMP 10
WNW HUT 20 SSE RSL 40 WSW CNK 25 NNW FNB 35 N DSM 35 NE MCW 15 NNE
MSP 70 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY 50 SSE JAX
...CONT... 20 ESE PSM 15 WNW EFK ...CONT... 80 NE MQT 10 SE ESC 15
SSE MTW 30 S RFD 35 S UIN 15 SE CNU 40 ENE OKC 15 NNW FTW 35 SW TPL
30 WNW VCT 45 S VCT ...CONT... 25 W YUM 25 NE PHX SOW 40 NNE GNT 25
WNW ALS 15 NNW COS 40 SE AKO 30 ESE MCK 20 WNW OMA 30 NW FOD 10 N
FRM 35 NNE RWF 60 N DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS...

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS CURRENTLY
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS MN. IN
ADDITION...STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PUNCHING FROM THE WEST INTO MN
HELPING CREATE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR INL SHOWS STRONG DIRECTIONAL IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL
WITH SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...500 MB TEMPS
OF -12 TO 15 C WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
MARGINAL THREAT LATE THIS EVENING IN ERN WI AND NW IL. HOWEVER...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY
DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE NEB WITH A LOW IN
CNTRL KS. THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY INSTABLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH
A BOWING STRUCTURE CURRENTLY TRACKING SEWD ACROSS NE KS. VAD WIND
PROFILES IN NE KS SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS HOWEVER...THE MAIN MODE WILL BE MULTICELL. VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL FORMATION. IN
ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE
LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE LINE MOVES SWD INTO DECREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS
SCNTRL KS.

...WEST AND SW TX...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
EXTENDING NWD ACROSS W TX. THIS IS FUELING A LARGE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX NORTH OF DEL RIO. THE 00Z SOUNDING AT DRT SHOWS RELATIVELY
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT. MID-LEVEL TEMPS AROUND 4 C WILL BE TOO WARM FOR HAIL
HOWEVER...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..BROYLES.. 08/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.