[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 082003
SWODY1
SPC AC 082001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW
CMX 30 SW IMT 35 W JVL 35 W MLI 40 WSW IRK 35 SW OJC 30 SSW HUT 30
ESE DDC 15 NNW DDC 30 SW HLC 30 E MCK 10 WSW EAR 25 NNE OMA 30 NNE
OTG 55 NNE ABR 60 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 65 NNW GBN
20 ENE IGM 20 NNE PGA 65 SSW 4BL 30 NNE GUP 30 W 4SL 35 NE 4SL 35 W
ALS 50 NNW 4FC 15 ESE LAR 60 NE AIA 45 ENE PIR 30 NW ABR 35 SW JMS
20 SSE P24 30 ENE ISN 65 NNE ISN ...CONT... 80 ESE ANJ 15 N BEH 20
NW VIH 40 SW JLN 35 SSW TUL 40 N FTW 15 W AUS 45 ESE SAT 25 NE NIR
45 ENE CRP ...CONT... 45 SW GLS 25 E HOU 15 WNW LCH 35 NW 7R4 25 ESE
LFT 25 N MSY 20 WNW PNS 35 E MAI 20 NE JAX ...CONT... 15 SE PSM 25
NNE PSF 20 N BGM 15 N ROC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE
CNTRL PLAINS...

...CNTRL PLAINS...
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL
KS INTO SERN NEB ALONG/AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.  TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE FROM S OF OMAHA SWWD TO CNTRL KS WHERE MLCAPES
WERE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG.  THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
6 KILOMETERS IS 25-30 KTS...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INITIALLY WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A MCS THIS
EVENING AND PROPAGATE SSEWD INTO CNTRL KS ALONG THE INSTABILITY
AXIS.  THE SEVERE THREATS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS LLJ IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND SINCE NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL DECREASE
INSTABILITY.

...ERN ND EWD TO UPPER MS VLY...
COMPACT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MINUS 15C H5 TEMPERATURES ATOP
AROUND 75/60F SURFACE T/TD HAVE STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY
FOR TSTMS IN NWRN MN AND ND.  COLD TROP AND VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS
ERN ND/NWRN MN THROUGH THE EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP
EWD AS H5 HEIGHT FALLS TRANSLATE INTO NRN MN OVERNIGHT.  MUCH OF NRN
MN HAS NOT DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...
ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

ELSEWHERE...COMPLICATED SURFACE FEATURES EXIST ACROSS MN/IA INTO THE
UPPER MS VLY.  WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
TSTMS CLUSTERS ACROSS NRN WI AND OVER SCNTRL MN/NCNTRL IA. 
STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED VCNTY
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER CNTRL MN AND NCNTRL IA WHERE MLCAPES RANGE
UP TO 2000 J/KG.  TSTMS WILL EITHER INTENSIFY /BECOME SURFACE BASED/
FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY OR DEVELOP VCNTY THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY LATER THIS EVENING. 
INCREASING WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
TSTMS TO DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS GIVING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.  EWD
EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CNTRL WI/ERN IA
WHERE INSTABILITY VALUES DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S/90S
WILL SUPPORT TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM SRN CO INTO NM AND W TX
THIS AFTERNOON.  STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS.  ISOLD
GUSTY WINDS/LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

...NRN MAINE...
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH COLD CORE ALOFT. 
ISOLD HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS.  ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

...SWRN TX...
MCV OVER THE CONCHO VLY OF CNTRL TX HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN TSTM
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL
TSTMS ALONG THE SRN/WRN PERIPHERY OF CURRENT TSTM COMPLEX THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1500-2000 J/KG.  THOUGH
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS WEAK...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT /REF MCD #1923/.

..RACY.. 08/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.