[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081616
SWODY1
SPC AC 081615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW
CMX 30 SW IMT 35 W JVL 35 W MLI 40 WSW IRK 35 SW OJC 50 SSE DDC 40 W
EHA 25 S LAA 15 NNE LAA 40 SSW GLD 40 ESE LBF 30 NNW BUB 35 ESE HON
40 S FAR 75 NNW GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSM 25 NNE PSF
20 N BGM 15 N ROC ...CONT... 80 ESE ANJ 15 N BEH 20 NW VIH 40 SW JLN
35 SSW TUL 40 N FTW 15 W AUS 45 ESE SAT 25 NE NIR 45 ENE CRP
...CONT... 45 SW GLS 25 E HOU 15 WNW LCH 35 NW 7R4 25 ESE LFT 25 N
MSY 20 WNW PNS 35 E MAI 20 NE JAX ...CONT... 60 ESE YUM 65 NNW GBN
20 ENE IGM 20 NNE PGA 65 SSW 4BL 30 NNE GUP 30 W 4SL 35 NE 4SL 35 W
ALS 50 NNW 4FC 15 ESE LAR 60 NE AIA 45 ENE PIR 30 NW ABR 35 SW JMS
20 SSE P24 30 ENE ISN 65 NNE ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPACT/VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LOCATED AT 15Z VICINITY
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/ND BORDER TRACKING EWD TO BE OVER NRN MN
TONIGHT.  COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM SURFACE LOW SRN MANITOBA
THRU ERN DAKOTAS...WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWRN MN SWWD INTO CENTRAL
NEB. PRESSURE SURGE/COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SWD THRU ERN CO AND WILL
CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON.

AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BECOME
MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON...AS REMNANTS FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DISSIPATE AND STRONG HEATING OCCURS. EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NRN MN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE CURRENT THICK
CLOUDINESS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AS UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING
SPREAD EWD WITH UPPER LOW AND FRONT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
STRONG HEATING SRN MN AHEAD OF FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ENABLE
AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO
2000 J/KG.  STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARIES BY MID AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS.  STRONGER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH UPPER LOW REMAINS W OF WARM SECTOR  THIS
PM...THUS SFC-6KM SHEAR PROFILES OF 25-30 KT SUPPORT PRIMARILY
MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE. INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH STORMS SRN MN...WITH DIMINISHING RISK NWD
ACROSS NRN MN WHERE AIR MASS WILL STRUGGLE TO DESTABILIZE WITH
CURRENT CLOUD COVER. AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD...UPPER WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS UPR MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE...CONTINUING AT LEAST A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS EWD INTO WI THIS EVENING.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
WITH 7-8C/KM LAPSE RATES ACROSS WARM SECTOR TO E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM SWRN NEB INTO SERN CO...ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING...AIR MASS
BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG
COMMON.

WHILE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT...THE PRONOUNCED
VEERING PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
STORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID AFTERNOON VICINITY SURFACE
BOUNDARIES FROM ERN NEB SWWD INTO NRN/WRN KS WHERE CAP WEAKENS. 
SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR INITIALLY ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS PRIOR TO A MORE MULTICELLULAR MODE BY THIS EVENING. 
OBJECTIVE HAIL MODELS INDICATE LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY
...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELLS.  LOCALIZED DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN 30F  T/TD SPREADS.  STORMS COULD EVOLVE
INTO AN MCS OVER CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING AND PROPAGATE S/SEWD INTO
THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  HOWEVER ONLY A WEAK LLJ SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD LESSEN AFTER DARK.

...SWRN TX/SERN NM...
A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE...WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS THIS
AREA.  STRONG HEATING WILL ENABLE A FEW STORMS TO BRIEFLY BECOME
SEVERE DURING AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 08/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.