[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081222
SWODY1
SPC AC 081221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW
CMX 30 SW IMT 35 W JVL 35 W MLI 40 WSW IRK 25 SE TOP 50 E LBL 40 W
EHA 25 S LAA 15 NNE LAA 40 SSW GLD 40 ESE LBF 35 NNW BUB 35 SSE ABR
40 ENE JMS 60 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE YUM 45 WNW PHX
45 ENE IGM 30 NNW GCN 10 SW CEZ 25 SW GUC 30 NNW 4FC 15 ENE CYS 30
ENE AIA 35 SE PHP 35 S MBG 30 NNW MBG 25 E DIK 30 ESE SDY 70 NNE
OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ENE APN 20 SW MBS
35 S SPI 10 ESE VIH 30 SW UMN 20 N MLC 30 NE ADM 30 N FTW ACT 15 SW
LFK 30 NW LFT 20 E LUL 35 NNE DHN SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSM 15 E PSF 20
SSE UCA 30 NW SYR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WRN
DAKOTAS...WILL CONTINUE ESEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY WITH
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER SPREADING ACROSS MN/WI
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS AND EAST ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION HAVE OUTRUN THE SURFACE FRONT AND CONTINUE WITHIN WEAK
WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM SERN NEB TO SRN MN EARLY TODAY. DEEP NWLY
FLOW AND SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY ESEWD MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SITUATED FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO KS BY MONDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATED A WEAK IMPULSE
TRANSLATING SSEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON THE SERN FLANK OF FOUR
CORNERS UPPER HIGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD TURN MORE SLY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGING WILL
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST
THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND LIFTS OUT TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.

...ERN DAKOTAS/MN/WI...
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND
MOIST AIRMASS OVER ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST
IR SATL IMAGES INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD THIN
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE HEATING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY
LIKELY ACROSS SRN/SERN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPPING AND STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND BELT OF
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN HALF OF MN WILL RESULT IN
ADEQUATE DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. SEVERAL LINES
OR BANDS OF STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING. GREATER TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL RESULTING IN
LOW SRH ON FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE
ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN INTO WRN WI AS STORMS DEVELOP EAST
ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE REGION MAY
REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AS THE
SITUATION UNFOLDS.

...NEB/IA/KS/MO...
STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME SITUATED ATOP LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRINGE EFFECTS FROM HEIGHT FALL CENTER PASSING THE REGION TO THE
NORTH WILL AID IN OVERCOMING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND PROMOTE
SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION. IN ADDITION TO MESOSCALE FORCING
ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...DEEPER FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-40KT.
SOME ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD AND EVENTUALLY BECOME UNDERCUT BY
SURFACE FRONT FROM KS INTO MO BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

...WEST TX/ERN NM...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND SERN FLANK OF UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION AND THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DESPITE MARGINAL SHEAR...STEEP LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE.

..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 08/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.