[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080555
SWODY1
SPC AC 080553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW
CMX 20 E AUW 25 WSW JVL 20 SSE MLI 45 S IRK 40 NNE CNU 50 E LBL 40 W
EHA 55 SSE LHX 15 SE LHX 20 NNE LAA 45 SSW EAR OFK 35 NE FSD 30 SE
FAR 75 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW APN 10 SW GRR
10 NE CMI 55 SSW STL 20 N FYV 40 ESE OKC 25 WNW SPS 55 WNW MWL ACT
15 SW LFK 40 NW LFT 30 ESE LUL 35 NNE DHN SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE YUM 45 NNW GBN
30 SW PRC 50 ENE IGM 30 NNW GCN 55 SSE U17 35 NNE CEZ 20 E ASE 10
ESE FCL 35 NNW VTN 35 NNE PIR 10 E MBG 25 NNE DIK 65 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BOS 20 ENE PSF
15 SSE UCA 30 NW SYR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN MS
VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS...

...CNTRL PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY AND INTERACT
WITH STRONG INSTABILITY RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
OF NEB AND KS. PARTIAL CLEARING THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC
HEATING...YIELDING MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. A SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS
WILL PROVIDE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORM INITIATION ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL KS. ALTHOUGH ASCENT WILL BE
WEAKER FARTHER NORTHEAST...OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD
INITIATE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE NCNTRL ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...SPREADING STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT BUT MULTICELL SHOULD BE THE
DOMINATE MODE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS WHERE A PLUME
OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE IN PLACE. ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE
SEGMENTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...NRN MS VALLEY...
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD NEAR A COLD
FRONTAL ZONE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES EWD TODAY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HEATING FOR THE INITIATION OF NEW
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM UPDRAFTS.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MN AS A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EWD...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MN AND WRN IA BY PEAK
HEATING. THIS WILL RESULT IN 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS. THE STRONGEST CELLS
WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

...W TX/ERN NM...
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S F. SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD INITIATE IN THE MTNS OF SE NM AND FAR W TX...SPREADING
GRADUALLY EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE
STORMS...LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL
THREAT. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED
TO THE STRONGEST STORMS NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 08/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.