[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080053
SWODY1
SPC AC 080051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW
GFK 20 NNW FAR 10 NW ATY 35 SE 9V9 15 WSW ANW 20 WNW MHN 35 NE AIA
20 NNW CDR 15 NW RAP 25 WSW Y22 40 N DIK 55 N ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
EHA 25 SW LAA 30 E LIC 35 SSE SNY 40 E SNY 35 N IML 30 NW MCK 55 WSW
HLC 35 SW GCK 20 NNE EHA 40 WNW EHA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE CTY 15 NNW
DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N CMX 10 WNW RHI
10 WSW LSE 15 SSE FOD 25 NW BIE 30 NW P28 30 WSW SPS 50 WNW AUS 40
NW VCT 20 S PSX ...CONT... 75 S GBN 70 E BLH 30 ESE IGM 25 SSW PGA
35 ESE CNY 25 SE CPR 45 ENE 4BQ 10 E GDV 15 SE GGW 45 NW HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BDR 10 E BGM
40 W ART.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS MT/WY.
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW IN SCNTRL SD WITH A
MOIST TONGUE WRAPPING NWWD AROUND THE LOW IN NRN SD. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM SRN ND SWD ACROSS CNTRL SD AND
THIS WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT. A
PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY EXISTS IN WRN
AND CNTRL SD WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8.0 C/KM.
THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS
ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH IN THE LINE ACROSS SRN ND. MODEL FORECAST
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE...ORGANIZING SWD ACROSS
CNTRL SD. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY
MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXISTING ACROSS WRN KS AND WCNTRL NEB. SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS WRN KS
ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 2500
J/KG. THIS WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EWD INTO FAR WRN KS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FAR WRN KS THIS
EVENING SHOW 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN ADDITION...THE DDC
00Z SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. HOWEVER...SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN AREA OF COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF DODGE CITY. THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST
THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 08/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.