[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071951
SWODY1
SPC AC 071949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
DVL GFK 55 W AXN BKX 35 N BUB 40 NNW BBW 40 WSW MHN 15 SW AIA 45 W
CDR 45 SE 81V 45 WNW REJ 55 SE GDV 60 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 35 NW RHI 40
S LSE 25 NNW FOD 45 S EAR 20 SW END 35 S SPS 20 WNW AUS 25 SW PSX
...CONT... 65 SSW GBN 20 NNE GBN 40 SE IGM 60 WNW GCN 30 NNE U17 55
SE RKS 20 SE DGW 20 ENE GCC 45 SSW MLS 80 E LWT 20 SE GTF 50 NE FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BDR 25 WSW MSV
40 W ART.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...
19Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE
BORDER OF MT...ND AND SD SWWD INTO NRN WY.  AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TREND OF WEAKENING INHIBITION. 
TSTMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG THE FRONT FROM WRN ND INTO SERN MT AND
GIVEN APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THESE STORMS WILL GROW
UPSCALE AS THEY MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF SD/ND THROUGH THE EVENING.

WEAK ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH INCREASING WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW TO
30 KTS IS AUGMENTING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH VALUES IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL PARTS OF SD/ND BY MID-EVENING. 
STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND SEWD THROUGH SD AND NRN NEB
AND A TSTM CLUSTER COULD EVOLVE AND PROPAGATE ALONG THE SD/NEB
BORDER AREA OVERNIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT WIND/HAIL THREAT.  FARTHER
N...AIR MASS HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM MORNING CLOUDS...BUT
INSOLATION WILL BE WEAKER AND TSTMS THAT APPROACH FROM THE WEST MAY
WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH THE RED RVR.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONGEST UPSLOPE FLOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN CO AND
ERN NM PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS...WITH INCREASING WLY FLOW OVER WY. 
DIURNAL TSTM HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CO/NM MOUNTAINS AND WILL
LIKELY DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KILOMETERS IS RATHER WEAK
AS EVIDENCED BY THE GRANADA AND TUCUMCARI PROFILERS /0-6KM VALUES
AOB 20 KTS/.  ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS.  NONETHELESS...ISOLD SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A CLUSTER OR
TWO OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE AND MOVE INTO WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH.

...NEW ENGLAND...
BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S-MID
70S AND DEW POINTS OF 50-55F BENEATH MINUS 20C H5 COLD POCKET HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. 
VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND ANY GIVEN UPDRAFT WILL NOT LAST LONG. 
GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HOWEVER...ISOLD STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN 
DURING THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL COOLING.

...DEEP S TX...
MCS THAT MOVED SEWD INTO SCNTRL TX EARLY TODAY HAS DISSIPATED. 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE MOVING SWD THROUGH SCNTRL TX AND A
FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FROM DEL RIO EWD TO JUST WEST OF VICTORIA THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.  AIR MASS ACROSS DEEP S TX REMAINS
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES TO 1500 J/KG.  DESPITE WEAK TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR
...THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY TSTM
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS DEEP S TX THROUGH THE EVENING.

..RACY.. 08/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.