[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071639
SWODY1
SPC AC 071637

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
DVL GFK 55 W AXN BKX 35 N BUB 20 NW LBF 20 SE SNY 50 ESE CYS 40 SW
BFF 45 SE 81V 30 E 4BQ 25 NNW MLS 65 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 20 NNE GBN
40 SE IGM 60 WNW GCN 30 NNE U17 55 SE RKS 45 ESE DGW 15 NW 81V 45
SSW MLS 80 E LWT 20 SE GTF 50 NE FCA ...CONT... 85 E ELO 35 NW RHI
40 S LSE 25 NNW FOD 45 S EAR 20 SW END 35 S SPS 20 WNW AUS 25 SW
PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BDR 25 WSW MSV
40 W ART.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS.  WEAKER LEAD SYSTEM FROM EXTREME ERN MT SSWWD INTO ERN
WY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD AND WEAKEN IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY
VORTICITY MAX MOVING ACROSS NWRN MT.  THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO
ERN MT BY 00Z AND INTO WRN ND TONIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT OVER ERN MT WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN ND/NWRN SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE ERN DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL NEB BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF SD/ERN MT INTO SRN ND INDICATING STRONG HEATING WILL
OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF
WELL-MIXED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MIXING
RATIOS OF 10-12 G/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

12Z ETA/RUC AND 09Z SREF GUIDANCE ALL PROVIDE CONSISTENT GUIDANCE ON
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BUILDING SWD WITH TIME INTO PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL
NEB.  ALTHOUGH STRONGEST WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT
TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...WIND PROFILES
WILL EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR /30-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ TO ENHANCE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AMPLE MOISTURE PERSISTS NEAR LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WHERE
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT.  SEVERAL AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING COUPLES WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT WEAK WINDS/VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

...SRN TX...
A SMALL MCS IS MOVING SWD INTO SRN TX THIS MORNING.  VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH IS INTERSECTING REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL
EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF CRP TO NEAR SAT.  THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
THIS CONVECTION IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID
70S AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR IF COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND PROMOTES CONTINUOUS
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE.

...NEW ENGLAND...
VERY COLD MID LEVEL LOW WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -20C IS
LIFTING NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  LOW TOP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TO
DEVELOP.  SEE SWOMCD 1912 FOR MORE DETAILS.

..WEISS/JEWELL.. 08/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.