[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071228
SWODY1
SPC AC 071226

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
DVL 10 SW TVF 20 ENE AXN 40 ESE BKX 35 N BUB 20 NW LBF 20 SE SNY 50
ESE CYS 40 SW BFF 45 SE 81V 30 E 4BQ 25 NNW MLS 65 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 70 NW GBN
IGM 50 S SGU 30 NNE U17 45 NW GJT 30 SW CPR 45 SSE SHR 45 NE COD 40
E LVM 15 WSW HLN 40 S MSO 15 S S06 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 40 E MQT 35
N MSN 40 E DSM 10 NE FLV 40 SSW ICT 40 SW END 25 SE FSI 35 NE ACT 25
WSW GLS ...CONT... 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION TO A WRN
RIDGE/CNTRL U.S. TROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT WWD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/SRN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NEWD UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NRN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING
WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING FROM MT/WY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO THE
DAKOTAS AND NRN NEB BY LATER TONIGHT. MODERATE PACIFIC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM MT TO THE
WRN DAKOTAS/ERN WY BY EVENING AND BE SITUATED FROM NWRN MN TO NERN
CO BY EARLY SUNDAY.

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
WV LOOP INDICATED A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND MOVING OVER WRN MT EARLY TODAY. DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS IMPULSE...PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF LARGE MIDWEST ANTICYCLONE HAS TRANSPORTED MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS...STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DRYLINE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS ERN MT AND THE
WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-35KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL STORMS LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AS STRONGER FORCING AND WIND FIELDS SPREAD EAST WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND FRONT. LINEAR ORGANIZATION NEAR THE
FRONT...AND PRESENCE OF DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF
ND/SD THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE EVENING.

STRONGER CAP AND LESS FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING MT/ND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ISOLD
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEB PNHDL AND ERN WY.
NONETHELESS...A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM STORMS
INITIATING NEAR DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

...SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
FAVORABLE MOISTURE...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...AND HEATING BENEATH WEAK 
MID LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE RIDGE WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN...FRONT RANGE...AND HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
FROM CO TO FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS BUT OVERALL HAZARD APPEARS TOO
RANDOM/DISORGANIZED TO SUPPORT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 08/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.