[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070559
SWODY1
SPC AC 070558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W
RRT 50 S FAR 35 NNW YKN 50 NE BUB 20 SW BBW 25 E SNY 35 NNW BFF 30 E
4BQ 65 NNE GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E MQT 20 N AUW 40
E DSM 10 NE FLV 40 SSW ICT 40 SW END 10 N SPS 20 ENE SEP 20 SW GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 70 NW GBN
IGM 50 S SGU 30 NNE U17 30 NE CNY 35 NNW CAG 15 NNW RWL 50 NW CPR 20
SW SHR 50 SE BIL 20 WSW 3HT 15 WSW HLN 40 S MSO 15 S S06 60 ENE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND
NEB...

...NRN PLAINS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
NRN PLAINS TODAY. AS THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER SFC
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY.

THE BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS
AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO ABOUT 40 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
STRONG ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD INTO THE
CNTRL DAKOTAS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY.

FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER
THAN AREAS FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND RELATIVELY
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL BUT
IF A FEW STORMS CAN INITIATE...A BRIEF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT
MAY EXIST NEAR PEAK HEATING.

...NEB/KS...
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEB AND KS...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN
PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS NCNTRL NEB. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
COVERAGE ISOLATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE STRONGLY VEERED AND THIS MAY CREATE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A
MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER OF STRONGEST
INSTABILITY IN NEB. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IF STORMS CAN INITIATE
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN WCNTRL NEB/NW KS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT AND A
STRONG CAP IN PLACE.

..BROYLES.. 08/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.