[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070041
SWODY1
SPC AC 070039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
COD 35 SE LVM 25 SSW 3HT 25 SSE LWT 75 NNE BIL 45 WSW MLS 55 NNE SHR
20 NW SHR 25 NNE COD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N
MAF 35 NE HOB 40 SSE CVS 35 E TCC 40 WNW AMA 10 E AMA 25 E PVW 45
SSE LBB 55 N MAF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE
RRT 40 WSW AXN 20 WNW BKX 25 SW ANW 30 WNW MHN 40 E CDR 20 SSW PHP
50 N ABR 75 NE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE YUM 25 NNE EED
30 W CDC 45 E DPG 25 NNE MLD 45 SW MQM 50 SW 27U 65 WSW BKE 45 NNW
RDM 35 S AST ...CONT... 20 NNE ELO 35 ESE MKT 50 SW FOD 25 WNW MHK
15 SE OKC 20 SE FTW 50 ENE CLL 15 WNW 7R4 30 NW BVE ...CONT... 25
WNW PFN 30 NNE SSI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF W TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL MT...

...DAKOTAS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF
INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
EWD ACROSS SERN ND AND ERN SD...INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION...A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT...LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGLY VEERED AND THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH
THE STRONGEST MULTICELL STORMS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DECREASE DUE TO WEAKENING
INSTABILITY...A CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES INTO WRN
MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...W TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS RESULTING IN A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING SEWD ON
THE CAPROCK. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CONVECTION NEAR THE NOSE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH A SMALL 700 MB JET PUNCHING INTO NW TX.
THESE TWO FEATURES ARE CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WHICH IS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS W TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY
AXIS ORIENTED NW TO SE FROM ERN NM TO CNTRL TX. DECREASING
INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO
DIMINISH.  

...SCNTRL MT...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SE MT. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN NE WY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 KT) IN
PLACE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A SUPERCELL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 TO 9.0 C/KM AND SFC
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 35 TO 40 DEGREES WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 08/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.