[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061642
SWODY1
SPC AC 061640

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW
MOT 50 W DVL 60 SSW JMS 55 ENE PIR 30 NW MHN 40 NW IML 20 W SNY 15
WNW SHR 20 SE BZN 40 NNE 27U 20 SSW S80 20 WNW LWS 10 SSE GEG 35 NE
63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE YUM 15 SSE EED
40 SW SGU 40 NW CDC 35 ENE U24 20 WNW IDA 35 S 27U 75 E BKE 60 N BNO
45 NNW RDM 35 S AST ...CONT... 45 NW ELO 40 ESE BRD 35 E FRM 35 SSW
SPW 20 NE CNK 40 S PNC 25 NNW ACT 50 ENE CLL 20 W 7R4 30 NW BVE
...CONT... 25 WNW PFN 30 NNE SSI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS...

...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF THREE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS
THE NWRN STATES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND FLATTEN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ND TOWARD NRN MN...WITH
ASSOCIATED ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW OVER ERN ND CONTINUING INTO
PROGRESSIVELY LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
LIFTING NEWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND SHOULD MOVE
INTO WRN MT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND IS FORECAST TO ROTATE INLAND
ACROSS WA AND NRN ID TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES UNTIL TONIGHT.  A LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED FROM SERN MT ACROSS ERN WY INTO ERN CO.

AIR MASS FROM NRN ID ACROSS MT HAS EXHIBITED SOME DRYING SINCE
YESTERDAY IN THE WAKE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.  HOWEVER...
STRONG HEATING AND DYNAMIC FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH STRONGER
CELLS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED HAIL.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT  OVER ERN WA INTO NRN ID/NWRN MT AS THE PACIFIC NW
SYSTEM MOVES EWD.

FARTHER EAST...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM SERN MT
INTO ERN WY/WRN DAKOTAS/WRN NEB MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
WILL WEAKEN CAP AND PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS. 
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
WINDS OF 30-35 KT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

...FL PENINSULA...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN FL WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS PRESENT SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.  DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION HAS
RESULTED IN SOME DRYING ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS.  

...AZ...
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS PRESENT IN PHX AND TUS SOUNDINGS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES.  A BAND OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...AND THIS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT ONSET OF STRONG HEATING TODAY. 
THIS CLOUD EDGE MAY ESTABLISH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WHERE
CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP LATER TODAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL AZ.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS ALONG POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS.

..WEISS/JEWELL.. 08/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.