[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061237
SWODY1
SPC AC 061235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW
MOT 50 W DVL 60 NNE ABR 55 ENE PIR 20 WNW PHP 30 NW RAP 20 NNE GCC
40 WNW SHR 20 SE BZN 40 NNE 27U 20 SSW S80 20 WNW LWS 10 SSE GEG 35
NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN 30 NNE SSI
...CONT... 30 NW ROC 45 NE BFD 25 E LBE 30 ESE MFD 20 ENE TOL 55 SE
OSC ...CONT... 45 NW ELO 40 ESE BRD 45 ESE FOD 50 W LWD 40 NNW TOP
25 NE PNC 40 E SPS 55 E CLL 30 NW BVE ...CONT... 40 ESE YUM 15 SSE
EED 40 SW SGU 40 NW CDC 35 ENE U24 20 WNW IDA 20 NNE DLN 70 E BKE 60
N BNO 45 NNW RDM 35 S AST.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO PARTS
OF THE DAKOTAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM A STRONG TROUGH OVER
THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN THE UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD. A LEAD IMPULSE...NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE
EWD ACROSS WA/ORE LATER TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER MT BY SATURDAY.
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS AND COOL AIR WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST AS A
MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THIS REGION. THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN U.S.
TROUGH WILL DRIFT SWD INTO FL TODAY. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT
HAS INTERMINGLED AND MERGED WITH THE LEE-TROUGH FROM WEST TX NWD
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS BENEATH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT.

...DAKOTAS...
SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND LLJ ACT ON NARROW PLUME OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. CURRENT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ROOTED WELL ABOVE CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD RESULT
IN A FEW HAIL REPORTS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION EVENTUALLY SPREADING EWD ATOP RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MN. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND STRONG HEATING IN
THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE-BASED TSTMS LATER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF ND/SD. FCST SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST THAT A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF BOTH LARGE HAIL AND WIND IF
THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME.

...ID/MT/NERN WY...
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE NRN ROCKIES APPEARS TO BE
LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS NRN CA AND NWRN NV EARLY TODAY. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE OF 300-1300
J/KG FROM NRN ID ESEWD TO THE MT/WY BORDER. HIGHER INSTABILITY IS
FCST FROM NERN WY INTO ERN MT. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AIDED BY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW/DPVA AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO GREATER
INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. SEVERAL LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS...AND A FEW
SUPERCELLS...MAY EVOLVE FROM LATE AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION AND
POSE A HAIL AND WIND HAZARD WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE MCS
SPREADING EAST INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

...TX/HIGH PLAINS...
LEE TROUGH/RESIDUAL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE VIGOROUS
TSTMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BACKGROUND SUBSIDENCE
AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR SUGGEST ONLY AN ISOLD STRONG WIND
GUST OR HAIL REPORT MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...FL...
COLD FRONTAL PENETRATION INTO FL IS UNUSUAL FOR AUGUST. DESPITE
LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...A FEW STRONG TSTMS AND ISOLD SEVERE STORMS
WITH WIND MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT AS CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACT ON A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE PENINSULA.

..CARBIN/BRIGHT.. 08/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.