[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 062008
SWODY1
SPC AC 062006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE
MOT 50 W DVL 60 WNW JMS 40 NE MBG 30 NE PIR 35 W VTN 30 NW MHN 40 NW
IML 20 W SNY 20 NNW WRL 15 NNE WEY 40 NNE 27U 20 SSW S80 20 WNW LWS
10 SSE GEG 35 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ELO 40 ESE BRD
35 E FRM 35 SSW SPW 20 NE CNK 40 S PNC 25 NNW ACT 50 ENE CLL 20 W
7R4 30 NW BVE ...CONT... 25 WNW PFN 30 NNE SSI ...CONT... 40 ESE YUM
15 SSE EED 40 SW SGU 40 NW CDC 35 ENE U24 20 WNW IDA 35 S 27U 75 E
BKE 60 N BNO 45 NNW RDM 35 S AST.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
NRN ROCKIES...

...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE OBS AND 18Z GREAT FALLS SOUNDING SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER
DEW POINTS ARE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AREA
WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S.  AS A RESULT...AIR MASS IS
NOT AS UNSTABLE AS ON THURSDAY WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS
SITUATED FROM SERN MT/NERN WY INTO WRN SD.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED A WEAKENING OF THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH WRN ID RECENTLY.  THIS
IMPULSE WILL MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL MT/NRN WY THROUGH TONIGHT. CBS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SWRN MT/ID MOUNTAINS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL
MT.  GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT...THESE TSTMS
WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED GIVING SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AND LARGE HAIL COULD
OCCUR.

FARTHER EAST...TSTMS DEVELOPING ON THE WY MOUNTAINS AND BLACK HILLS
WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF ERN
WY...SCNTRL/SERN MT...WRN NEB PNHDL AND WRN SD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WAS AROUND 35 KTS AND A SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
GIVEN AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ACROSS NERN MT AND WRN ND...SLGT RISK/PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED.  IMPULSE NOW MOVING INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS APPEARS TO BE
INFLUENCING THE DIURNAL WIND FIELDS...MAINTAINING A VEERED WLY FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOREOVER...SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE
DOMINATING THE AREA ATTM.  TSTMS MAY APPROACH FROM SCNTRL/SERN MT
LATER TONIGHT...AND COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL
ND/NWRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA. GIVEN A STORM...LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY
OCCUR. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK.

...NRN PLAINS/RED RVR VLY AREA...
ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN ND AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS RESIDE IN A
RESERVOIR OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPES.  EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS IN
THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND SUGGEST THE STORMS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
LONG-LIVED.  NONETHELESS...ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

...DESERT SW...
MOST VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ON
NRN PERIPHERY OF RESIDUAL CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS NRN/NWRN AZ.  18Z
FLAGSTAFF SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT A FEW LONGER LIVED TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 50-55 KT HIGH LEVEL FLOW.  THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

A LATER START TO THE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS SERN AZ
AND SWRN NM.  THIS HAS ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM
CONSIDERABLY AND 18Z TUCSON SOUNDING USING A 91/61 PARCEL EXHIBITED
SBCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT.  THE
STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT.  BUT...GIVEN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL
PROFILES...ISOLD MICROBURSTS WILL BE LIKELY.

...W TX...
PERSISTENT MOIST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT/TROUGH ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS
THROUGH THE EVENING.  MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY MAY OFFSET WEAK
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO SUPPORT ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  STORM MOTION WILL FAVOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY
AND ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SETTLE SWD ACROSS FL. 
GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT...ISOLD TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..RACY.. 08/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.