[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060536
SWODY1
SPC AC 060535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE
ISN 30 N DIK 40 NE RAP 35 WSW RAP 15 SSE GCC 45 W SHR 20 SE BZN 40
NNE 27U 20 SSW S80 20 WNW LWS 10 SSE GEG 35 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CZZ 50 NNE TRM
35 SE LAS 10 E SGU 15 SE MLF 40 W OGD 20 N PIH 50 WSW MQM 65 SW 27U
50 NW BOI 50 NNE 4LW 45 NNE MFR 10 WSW PDX 25 NNE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW INL 15 WSW STC
25 S SPW 30 NW TOP 40 NNE OKC 40 E SPS 25 N ACT 20 NNE BPT 30 W GPT
20 N PNS 15 NNW MAI 40 NE MGR 35 N SAV 25 NNW CRE 20 ENE GSB 20 SW
ORF 20 NNE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS...

...NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS...

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN MT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 18Z.  THIS
FEATURE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS SIGNIFICANT RIDGING
BEFORE TURING SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE IT APPEARS WEAK RIDGING OVER ERN MT WILL
TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS CONVECTION...BUT AID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IN SPITE OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE...IT APPEARS NEAR
DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND FORCING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD
AID AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.

OF MORE CONCERN IS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
WA/ORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND APPROACH WRN MT AROUND 00Z.  LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND MASS FIELDS SUGGEST THIS UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL AID
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH EWD
MOVEMENT/ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE INTO WRN MT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
 GIVEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOIST ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT
ACROSS MT...IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL PROPAGATE ACROSS
MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL MT BY 12Z.  ALTHOUGH 00Z MODELS DO NOT DEPICT
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...VERY COOL MID LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH...H5 TEMPS FROM MINUS 14-18 WILL SPREAD ACROSS SFC
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S...YIELDING SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR
ROBUST CONVECTION.  LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY EARLY ACTIVITY WHILE
DAMAGING WINDS COULD EVOLVE OVER THE PLAINS WITH ANY ORGANIZED
MCS-TYPE EPISODE DURING THE NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS LARGE HAIL
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 08/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.