[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051925
SWODY1
SPC AC 051924

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE
ISN 20 W Y22 10 SE CDR 35 W SNY 15 W CYS 25 NW DGW SHR 45 ENE WEY 35
SE 27U 30 ENE S80 65 NW FCA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 45
ENE MCN 20 ENE AHN 20 W RWI 25 SSE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 45 SE EED
50 N IGM 50 WNW MLF 50 SW MLD 20 WSW PIH 20 SSE SUN 65 ESE BNO 25 NW
4LW 70 SW RDM 25 NW DLS 35 SSE SEA 15 S UIL ...CONT... 75 NE DVL 20
ESE HON 25 N HLC 25 NW GAG 20 E CDS 20 NW FTW 40 E PRX 25 WSW MKL 10
SSW 5I3 25 NE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN
HIGH PLAINS...

...DEEP SOUTH-SERN STATES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
SRN APPALACHIAN CREST...MOVING EWD AT AROUND 35 KTS. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF TSTMS. TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN STRENGTHENING ALONG
LEE-TROUGH OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER
NERN GA.

TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD TOWARD THE SC/NC COAST
THROUGH THE EVENING.  HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
MICROBURSTS.  IN ADDITION...VWPS FROM GREER AND RALEIGH SHOW 30-40
KT MIDLEVEL FLOW AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  MORE LIKELY SEVERE SCENARIO
WILL BE FOR LINE SEGMENTS TO BECOME ALIGNED WITH WNWLY MEAN FLOW
RESULTING IN SMALL SCALE BOWS GIVING WIND DAMAGE.  SEVERE THREATS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH DIURNAL COOLING.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING VCNTY
E-W ORIENTED COLD FRONT/OUTFLOWS FROM NRN AL INTO CNTRL MS.  DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN FARTHER NORTHEAST.  GIVEN THAT STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS/SUPPORT PASSES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...MOST...IF NOT
ALL OF THE TSTMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. 
GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR...THOUGH....WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

...NRN ROCKIES...
SEVERE THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.  WATER
VAPOR CLEARLY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET TRANSLATING NEWD INTO
SRN ID ATTM.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NEWD...STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE/PVA WILL OVERSPREAD WRN/CNTRL MT.  CBS HAVE ALREADY FORMED
IN SWRN MT  AND WILL LIKELY GROW AS THE ENHANCED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

18Z SOUNDING FROM GREAT FALLS WAS CAPPED AND SUGGESTS INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.  MODIFYING THE SOUNDING
FOR A SURFACE PARCEL OF 80/54 WEAKENS THE CINH TO 60 J/KG AND GIVEN
INCREASED FORCING IT IS CONCEIVABLE TSTMS WILL ROOT INTO THE
UNSTABLE VALLEYS WHERE MLCAPES OF 1800 J/KG WILL EXIST.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. 
EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS WILL BE LIKELY THIS
EVENING AS THE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 70
KTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES ENEWD INTO CNTRL MT LATER IN THE EVENING.

...NRN HIGH/CNTRL PLAINS...
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARE MAINTAINING ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST INSOLATION HAS OCCURRED NW
OF CIRRUS CLOUD CANOPY OVER SERN WY.  CBS HAVE INITIATED OVER THE
WRN WY MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE BIG HORNS AND SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY OCCUR SWD
THROUGH CO...GIVEN MORE INTENSE HEATING AND STRONGEST HIGH LEVEL
FLOW EXISTING ACROSS WY/MT...HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF LONGER-LIVED
CELLS PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF ERN WY
INTO SERN MT.  THESE TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO ADJACENT WRN SD/NEB LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE DIMINISHED.

..RACY.. 08/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.