[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051633
SWODY1
SPC AC 051631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE
ISN Y22 40 ENE CDR BFF DGW SHR 45 SE LVM 27U S80 60 NE 63S.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 35
E AHN 30 WNW AND AVL RIC WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW IPL 40 NE TRM
50 N IGM 15 E CDC 25 S MLD 20 WSW PIH 20 SSE SUN 65 ESE BNO 25 NW
4LW 70 SW RDM 25 NW DLS 35 SSE SEA 15 S UIL ...CONT... 75 NE DVL 20
ESE HON 25 N HLC 25 NW GAG 20 E CDS 20 NW FTW 40 ESE PRX 10 ESE HOT
40 SSW PAH 20 WNW EKN 15 SSE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN
HIGH PLAINS...

...CAROLINAS...
UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH
BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM
KY/TN...ACROSS NORTHERN GA...INTO THE CAROLINAS.  AT THE
SURFACE...EFFECTIVE FRONT LIES FROM SOUTHEAST VA INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN NC/NORTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S AND
SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY OVER PARTS OF VA/NC/SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN TN
APPROACHES.  WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DISORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...HIGH CAPE VALUES AND DRY AIR
ALOFT SUGGEST A RISK OF WET DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE OVER
EASTERN NC/SC...AND WESTWARD INTO GA/AL/MS.  WEAKER FLOW ALOFT IN
THESE REGIONS SUGGEST A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CO SOUTHWARD INTO NM...WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE MAINTAINING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
FRONT RANGE REGIONS OF CO/NM...WHERE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE VALUES SUGGEST A
RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.  HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

...NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH PARENT
TROUGH OFF THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THROUGH 06/12Z. LEAD
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN WILL PIVOT NEWD TOWARD NRN ID/NWRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE OUT OF ONGOING STORMS WITH CONTINUED
HEATING ACROSS NRN ID/NWRN MT. MEANWHILE...75KT JET ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE NEWD...WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS
SWRN MT BY AFTERNOON IN LEFT FRONT QUADRANT COINCIDENT WITH PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. CONVECTIVE STORMS LIKELY FORMING ACROSS SWRN MT
WILL TRACK ENEWD AROUND 30KT IN MODERATELY STRONG SWLY FLOW.
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL
MT AS STORMS ENCOUNTER MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG/.
SFC-6KM SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT TRAVERSING WRN MT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINEAR STORM
STRUCTURES WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH
CONVECTIVE GUSTS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 65KT OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. 
VERY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 9C/KM AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS
ALSO SUGGEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES.

SEPARATE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BIG HORNS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS IN NRN/ERN WY. STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN 
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION AS PRESSURES FALL ACROSS
CENTRAL MT THROUGH 06/06Z. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS /60-70KT/ AND
AMPLE MOISTURE /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
LONG-LIVED CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEGINNING
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS STORMS TRACK EWD OFF THE MTNS...PERHAPS INTO
WRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE BY LATE EVENING.

..HART/BANACOS.. 08/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.