[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051319
SWODY1
SPC AC 051242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE
ISN 15 W Y22 30 NE CDR 10 N BFF 35 SE DGW 55 WSW GCC 50 SE LVM 40 SW
27U 45 SSE S80 60 NE 63S.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
CRE 45 ESE CLT 15 SE GSO 55 E DAN 20 WNW ORF 30 E ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 45 ENE JMS
35 WNW ATY 35 SSW MHE 30 NNE EAR 40 ENE HLC 30 N GAG 35 SW LTS 30
NNE MWL 40 ESE PRX 10 ESE HOT 40 SW JBR 40 SSW PAH 30 NNW HOP 35 SW
LEX 25 SW MGW 35 NNW BWI 15 NE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 20 NNW BLH 50 N
IGM 25 ESE CDC 30 SSE MLD 20 WSW PIH 20 SSE SUN 65 ESE BNO 35 N 4LW
70 SW RDM 15 WNW DLS 15 NNW BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SERN VA SWD ACROSS ERN
NC AND NERN SC...

...NRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AS
EVIDENCED BY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALONG/E OF CASCADE RANGE/ MOVING
ONTO THE WA/ORE COASTS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD TODAY ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES WHILE 80-90KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ FROM NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS.

INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND IN LEFT
EXIT REGION OF EVOLVING JET STREAK SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING TSTM
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL ID INTO WRN MT.
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PROMOTE COLD
POOL GENERATION. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A FAST-MOVING MCS WILL EXIST
TONIGHT WITH CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN MT.

OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS OR STORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD
ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
ERN WY INTO THE CO FRONT RANGE. IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/
WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL/
DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

...CAROLINAS...
CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
AND TN VALLEYS ALONG COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
/OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL OH
VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL REGION IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK...THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG.

AS REMNANTS OF OH/TN VALLEY CONVECTION AND RELATED FORCING AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTER THIS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...EXPECT
INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS NEW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL OR SURFACE FRONT. MODESTLY
STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZATION TO STORM CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS. THOUGH DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..MEAD/BRIGHT.. 08/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.