[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050111
SWODY1
SPC AC 050109

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
SBY 15 WNW NHK 20 SSW DCA DCA 20 NNW ILG 10 SSE ABE 25 N TTN 10 SSE
EWR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
FCA 35 WNW MSO 30 ENE S80 40 NE BKE 20 NW BNO 30 SW RDM 10 N DLS 10
WNW EPH 45 NNE 4OM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
3DU 30 S GTF 45 N LWT 70 ENE HVR 60 N OLF 30 E GDV 40 S REJ 35 ESE
81V 40 WSW GCC 40 W SHR 35 S LVM 35 ESE 27U 25 N 27U 35 SSW 3DU.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
BFF 30 NNE SNY 50 E AKO 35 ENE LAA 15 SW EHA 15 ENE DHT 30 SW CAO 10
SSW TAD 20 N COS 15 WSW CYS 30 WSW BFF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ISN 30 ENE DIK
20 NW PIR 10 NNW ANW 30 S MCK 10 N LBL 70 N CDS 35 NNW FSI 50 SW TUL
50 NNE MKO 40 NW TBN 20 WSW STL 25 ENE SLO 25 W LUK 30 SE CMH 30 SSW
FKL 40 SW ELM 25 NE MSV 10 NNW BID ...CONT... 20 NNE ECG 25 NE RDU
25 ESE SPA 30 NNW ATL 20 ESE GLH 35 S FTW 40 SSE BGS 30 WNW FST 45
SW MRF ...CONT... 75 SW GBN 45 ENE IGM 30 E U24 30 E MLD 35 WNW IDA
40 NW SUN 10 W OWY 45 WNW WMC 30 SE MHS 20 WSW MFR 20 ENE OLM 20 ENE
BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 15 WSW ABY 10 SSE
MCN 30 W AGS 30 E AGS 15 E CHS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO NERN WY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NWRN U.S....

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

LEADING EDGE OF LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES ITS EWD PROGRESSION AT
ROUGHLY 30KT ACROSS THE DELMARVA.  CURRENT SPEED SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

...HIGH PLAINS...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ULTIMATELY SPREADING SEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL UNDER WAY WITH STRONGEST
CONVECTION NOW OBSERVED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF CO...WHILE POTENTIALLY
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SWRN MT.  00Z
SOUNDING FROM GGW INDICATES FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION PROFILE FOR
SUSTAINED ORGANIZED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...ROUGHLY 1000J/KG.  AS LLJ INCREASES OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN
AREAL COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL MT BEFORE SPREADING INTO ERN MT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

...NWRN U.S...

STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ONGOING
CONVECTION TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE ID PANHANDLE INTO WRN MT LATER
THIS EVENING.  00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE THE PRESENCE
OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
HIGH BASED MULTI-CELL OR PERHAPS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.  LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

..DARROW.. 08/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.