[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 042004
SWODY1
SPC AC 042002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE
OLF REJ PHP MHN 15 SSW IML AKO FCL DGW SHR 40 S LVM BTM 25 ESE S80
50 NNE BNO 15 NW BNO 35 SW RDM 10 NE DLS 10 WNW EPH 45 NNE 4OM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MVN 40
NW HTS 30 E PKB 25 SE FKL 20 ENE IPT 25 SW AVP 25 WNW ILG 15 W DCA
30 NE SSU CSV MEM HRO SGF MVN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ACY 20 SW LYH
10 NNW AVL 55 E CHA HSV 40 SW HSV 25 NNE 0A8 35 N LGC 50 SE AND 30 W
FLO 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 10 SW BUF 10 ESE ROC 35 SE UCA 10 NNW BID
...CONT... 65 NNW ISN 30 ENE DIK 20 NW PIR 20 NNW ANW 50 SE GLD 20
NE AMA 25 SSW END 15 WNW CNU 35 NE MKC 25 NNW OMA 20 SSW SPW 30 WNW
MCW 30 W DBQ 25 NNW MMO 15 ESE DTW ...CONT... 35 S LRD 30 NW NIR 40
SW CLL 25 WSW LFK 20 N TYR 20 WSW MWL 35 ESE MAF 75 S MRF ...CONT...
75 SW GBN 45 ENE IGM 45 E U24 30 E MLD 10 SW IDA 30 WSW 27U 15 SSE
BKE 40 SE LMT 35 ESE CEC 45 WNW MFR 20 ENE OLM 20 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS WWD TO THE OH/TN VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO
THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
A LINE OF TSTMS HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OH
VLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  TSTMS BECAME FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE
WLY FLOW REGIME AND SEGMENTS OF THE LINE BOWED.  LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE BECOME STEEP ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND IT APPEARS
THAT TSTMS WILL MAINTAIN CHARACTER AS THEY CROSS THE RIDGE TOPS INTO
CNTRL/SCNTRL PA...ERN WV PNHDL...WRN/CNTRL MD AND THE NRN VA. HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN ALONG/NORTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE WLY FLOW REGIME IS STRONGER. 
ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF ISOLD SPIN-UP IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP VCNTY E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL PA.  STATE COLLEGE VWP
RECENTLY EXHIBITED A HODOGRAPH WITH 150 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND THERE
WERE REPORTS OF A BRIEF TORNADO BY A CITIZEN IN CLEARFIELD COUNTY.

IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE THREATS WILL EXTEND.  ONE
NEGATIVE FACTOR IN SUSTENANCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LINE OF TSTMS IS THE WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC OWING TO AFFECTS OF HRCN ALEX FAR OFFSHORE. THIS COULD
CAUSE THE TSTMS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS EVENING.

...OH/TN VLYS...
THOUGH A WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE
OH RVR...MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
NORTH...ROUGHLY FROM NRN OH TO CNTRL IND...THEN WWD INTO NRN MO. 
STRONGEST INSOLATION HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
OUTFLOW ACROSS THE KY COALFIELDS INTO THE KY LAKES REGION. 
PERSISTENT MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW WILL ENHANCE LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND
SUPPORT TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING FROM SRN WV INTO SRN/ERN KY.  THIS
REGION RESIDES ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
LOUISVILLE/JACKSON VWP SHOW 30-35 KTS OF WLY FLOW AROUND 4-5 KM. 
THUS...A FEW TSTMS MAY TEND TO BOW AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE.

FARTHER WEST...INSOLATION HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AHEAD OF THE
OUTFLOW.  AIR MASS...HOWEVER...HAS RECOVERED NWD TO THE SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT.  AS HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH DIGGING
TROUGH...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT FROM SERN MO INTO
SRN IL AS CINH ERODES. STORMS WILL THEN MIGRATE SSEWD INTO THE
LOWER OH/TN VLYS.  MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE AND MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE MOVING ACROSS NWRN WY ATTM PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
FROM SCNTRL MT INTO ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW FROM SURFACE
HIGH RIDGING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS HAS MAINTAINED 50S DEW POINTS
ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  AS CINH IS ERODED...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO
THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD WRN SD AND THE NEB PNHDL LATER THIS
EVENING WITH A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK MOVING INTO SRN ORE ATTM IS PROVIDING A LARGE
SCALE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT ENHANCED TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE
PART OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS CINH ERODING GRADUALLY ACROSS THE REGION AND MOUNTAIN
TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP INTO THE VLYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS AND LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT AND SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT.


...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
WEAK MCV MOVING NWD THROUGH CNTRL AZ WILL LIKELY ENHANCE TSTMS ALONG
WRN PERIPHERY OF MONSOONAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN AZ INTO SRN UT...SWRN
CO AND NWRN NM THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SLOPES OF CNTRL NM MOUNTAINS.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..RACY.. 08/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.