[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050549
SWODY1
SPC AC 050548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE
OLF 40 N REJ 45 NE CDR 35 WSW CDR 15 W DGW 60 SW GCC 40 SSW BIL 15 N
BZN 30 SW 3DU 25 WSW S06 60 ENE 63S.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
CRE FLO 35 W SOP 25 S DAN 60 SW RIC 25 NNE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 45 ENE JMS
35 WNW ATY 35 SSW MHE 40 NNE LBF 40 ENE GLD 35 SSE LBL 35 SW LTS 50
NNW DAL 35 W TXK 40 WSW PBF 25 SSW JBR 30 SSE CGI 35 SW OWB 10 SSE
LEX 35 ENE SSU 30 SSE BWI 20 NE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW YUM 25 N IGM 15
E U24 30 SE MLD 25 WSW IDA 25 NNW SUN 65 ESE BNO 40 SE LMT 35 ESE
CEC 45 WNW MFR 20 ENE OLM 20 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE SERN U.S....

...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST ERN
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN LIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FLATTENING THE UPPER
RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER MT.  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVE RESPONSIBLE IN
MAINTAINING MOIST SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LLJ ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN MT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
AID MID DAY THERMALS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PRIOR TO MAIN ZONE OF
ASCENT THAT SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN INTO CENTRAL MT BY PEAK
HEATING.  DEEP CONVECTION WILL BUILD OVER THE MOUNTAINS RATHER EARLY
THEN MOVE EWD BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED ACROSS THE PLAINS
WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. WITH TIME
STORM MERGERS AND FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS
ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MT TOWARD WRN ND LATE IN
THE PERIOD.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FROM SERN MT
INTO SERN WY.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
STRONGLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES.


...CAROLINAS...

SFC FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS SEWD IN THE WAKE OF DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. SRN EXTENT OF UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD INTO THE CAROLINAS AS
WIND SHIFT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO THIS REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING.  COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AID DESTABILIZATION
RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000 J/KG.  IT
APPEARS FRONTAL ZONE WILL FOCUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT
AS IT SURGES SEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z. 
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

..DARROW/LEVIT.. 08/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.