[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041634
SWODY1
SPC AC 041632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT WED AUG 04 2004

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE
OLF REJ PHP MHN 15 SSW IML AKO FCL DGW SHR 40 NE WEY GTF 45 NE CTB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFD
IPT CXY HGR EKN CSV MEM HRO SGF MVN LUK MFD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RDM
DLS EPH 45 WSW GEG LWS 30 NNW BKE 55 NNW BNO RDM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW BUF 10 ESE ROC
35 SE UCA 10 NNW BID ...CONT... 30 SSW ACY 20 SW LYH 10 NNW AVL 55 E
CHA HSV 40 SW HSV 25 NNE 0A8 35 N LGC 50 SE AND 30 W FLO 25 SSE OAJ
...CONT... 35 S LRD 30 NW NIR 40 SW CLL 25 WSW LFK 20 N TYR 20 WSW
MWL 35 ESE MAF 75 S MRF ...CONT... 75 SW GBN 45 ENE IGM 45 E U24 30
E MLD 10 SW IDA 30 WSW 27U 15 SSE BKE 40 SE LMT 35 ESE CEC 45 WNW
MFR 20 ENE OLM 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 65 NNW ISN 30 ENE DIK 20 NW PIR
20 NNW ANW 50 SE GLD 20 NE AMA 25 SSW END 15 WNW CNU 35 NE MKC 25
NNW OMA 20 SSW SPW 30 WNW MCW 30 W DBQ 25 NNW MMO 15 ESE DTW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WA/ORE...

...OH/PA/WV/MD...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL ROTATE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.  STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF LINE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
OH/WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV.  25-35 KNOT WESTERLY 500MB
WINDS...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND REMNANT MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF
MCS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH THESE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON /REF WW 706/.  EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS
UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...IF ACTIVITY CAN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
ORGANIZED...IT COULD REMAIN SEVERE INTO CENTRAL PA/CENTRAL MD LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...KY/IN/IL/MO/AR/TN...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM OH CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
IND/IL.  CLOUDS ARE THINNING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RATHER WEAK CAP WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  ACTIVITY
MAY DEVELOP WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR...AND SOUTHWARD AS
FAR AS WESTERN/MIDDLE TN BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING.

...MT/WY/SD/NEB/CO...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F FROM
WESTERN NEB INTO EASTERN MT.  FULL SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MT FIRST...THEN SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL WY AND NORTHEAST CO.  THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM CENTRAL WY NORTHWARD WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT.  

...WA/ORE...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE
NORTHERN CA COAST.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AIDING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ORE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN WA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.  HIGH-BASED
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE.

..HART/BANACOS.. 08/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.