[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030103
SWODY1
SPC AC 030101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
DBQ 20 WSW BRL 45 SW IRK 10 WSW FNB BBW 30 WSW CDR 30 S GCC 45 WNW
4BQ 30 SW GDV 45 SSE SDY 15 NE BIS 60 SE JMS 45 SSE AXN RST 30 WSW
DBQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 10 NNE MPV ELM 15
SW FKL 25 ESE FDY 35 E MIE 40 WNW SDF 30 ENE PAH 25 NNW UNO 45 SSW
OJC 35 SSW EAR 15 WNW MCK 25 WSW GLD 35 NNE CAO 55 NNE HOB 45 S MAF
15 E AUS 45 N LFT 45 NW CEW 40 S AUO 20 NE LGC RMG 30 SE CSV 40 SW
5I3 20 E CRW 30 NW CXY 20 NNW ABE 10 E JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW YUM 15 WNW LAS
25 SE EKO 50 NW OWY 85 SSE BNO 65 NNE SVE 35 ESE MHS 25 WSW MFR EUG
45 NNW EAT 40 NNW 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
MID MS VALLEY...

...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND
EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSED BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION.  ASIDE FROM ISOLATED STORMS OVER NRN NEB WHICH HAVE RECENTLY
DIMINISHED...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE
NORTH OF BOUNDARY...ESSENTIALLY DECOUPLED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND LIKELY ROOTED AOA 850MB.  THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING
WITH NEW CONVECTION NOW INCREASING OVER SRN SD FROM BRULE TO JERAULD
COUNTIES.  INTERPOLATING FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS...SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR TO SUPPORT STORM
ROTATION.  SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THIS WARM ADVECTION ZONE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE POSSIBLY CLUSTERING INTO ANOTHER MCS
AS IT PROPAGATES SEWD ACROSS SERN SD INTO NWRN IA.  LARGE HAIL AND
WITH TIME DAMAGING WINDS COULD DEVELOP WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER ZONE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IS WITH THE CONVECTION
SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN MT.  ESELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2 KM SUGGEST
THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS SERN MT INTO NWRN
SD/SWRN ND LATE THIS EVENING.  IF ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION...OTHERWISE
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

...NWRN U.S...

DIURNAL COOLING AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IN THE WAKE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE EASED THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NWRN INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN ORE...DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS APPEARS LIMITED IN ITS
ABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION.

...CAROLINAS...

NNEWD DRIFT TO ALEX WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINA COAST LATE DAY1. 
INCREASING SHEAR MAY SUPPORT STORM ROTATION BUT MORE EFFICIENT
SUPERCELLS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 08/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.