[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030559
SWODY1
SPC AC 030557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE
OLF DIK 40 SW ABR 30 ENE MKT 35 E MSN 20 SSE CGX 10 WSW DNV 35 SSE
SPI 45 NW COU TOP 30 WSW HUT 60 NW GCK 35 WSW IML 40 SW BFF 45 WSW
GCC 30 NNE COD 10 NE BZN 40 W GTF 20 N CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 20 NW VCT
25 ESE CLL 40 N LFT 20 E JAN 15 ENE RMG 30 SW BLF 40 WSW BKW 30 W
LOZ 35 SW CKV 30 NW DYR 55 NW POF 15 SSW VIH 50 N SGF 35 NE OKC 45 N
CDS 25 SSE LBB 40 SW P07 ...CONT... 65 SW GBN 20 SSW PRC 20 NE P38
60 NW ENV 30 N TWF 20 NE SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 45 W PUW
40 NNE EPH 15 N EAT 10 ESE YKM 40 SSE RDM 70 SSW RDM 35 SE EUG 50
NNE PDX 30 ENE SEA 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW MOT 20 NW JMS AXN 35
S CWA 35 SSW MBL 35 N MBS 70 ENE OSC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
MID MS VALLEY...

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS SRN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NWD...THEN EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  AN UPSTREAM NRN LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SEWD AND PHASE
WITH THIS FEATURE ENABLING A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH TO EVOLVE AND
DEEPEN OVER THE MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO SHARPEN LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FROM NRN IL...WWD INTO
CENTRAL NEB WHERE VERY HOT SFC TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S-LOW
100S SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW/DRY LINE
OVER SRN NEB BY 22Z.  INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE HIGH BASED BUT WILL
SLOWLY MOISTEN/LOWER AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
DOWNSTREAM.  STRONG VEERING PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...HOWEVER CLUSTERING OF CONVECTION AND STRENGTHENING LLJ
DURING THE EVENING FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL
ZONE.  EWD MOVEMENT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED AFTER DARK. 
LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
DOWNSTREAM.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

PERSISTENT ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC ANTICYCLONE
WILL FORCE MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS AOA 50F...AGAINST THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MT WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH WRN MT AROUND 00Z.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION FORCING IT EWD ONTO THE PLAINS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL
OR PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY OCCUR WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THEY SPREAD TOWARD THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.


...COASTAL CAROLINAS...

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ALEX AS IT APPROACHES
THE OUTER BANKS REGION OF NC.  UNLESS ALEX TURNS MORE NLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUPERCELL
TORNADOES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...OR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 
SLIGHT RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS A CHANGE IN TRACK OCCURS.

...NERN U.S...

STRENGTHENING UPPER JET IN BASE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRUSH NRN
MOST PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S. TODAY.  SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF SFC WIND SHIFT BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY
BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND SPREADS ACROSS REGION.  LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT FORECAST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS.

..DARROW.. 08/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.