[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 022005
SWODY1
SPC AC 022004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
DTW LAF ALN COU STJ BBW CDR 45 NE DGW SHR 35 WNW MLS GDV DIK 45 NNE
MBG 20 NNW STC 25 NNW RHI 70 W ANJ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DLS 35
NW PUW 10 NNW CTB 35 S HVR 3HT PUC BCE 30 NE P38 60 WNW ELY 70 N LMT
DLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL BTV 40 ENE BFD
CMH 15 W LUK 40 ENE OWB 55 NE MKL 20 WSW MKL 15 NNW MEM 50 SW ARG
SGF CNK 25 SW EAR 35 NNE MCK IML 40 N CAO HOB 50 S MAF AUS 45 SSW
LFK BTR 45 N MOB ANB HSV 45 WNW CSV LOZ 30 WNW EKN 15 E AOO 20 SE
AVP 10 E JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW OTH EUG 45 NNW
EAT 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 20 WSW IPL NID 45 SSW TPH NFL 30 ENE SVE
45 WNW SVE 45 NW RBL 65 S EKA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN MT/WY EWD TO THE GREAT
LAKES...

...ERN MT/ERN WY EWD INTO THE SD/NERN NEB/IA...
MAIN SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SE OF PHP...WITH
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NWWD BACK ACROSS SRN MT AND NEWD
INTO EAST CENTRAL SD. A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IS
ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES FROM
3000 TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS SD/NEB. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE AREA REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED...THOUGH ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION
WOULD HAVE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS INDICATED IN WV IMAGERY IN WRN WY AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SD THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FURTHER AID THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
SD. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND  VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS
MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO AND WIND DAMAGE. THESE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN SD/NERN NEB/IA...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. 
THIS AREA COULD BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK AT 01Z IF CONFIDENCE
OF THIS SCENARIO INCREASES.

...WI/MI/MN...
NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE UP INTO NRN WI. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SEWD WITH THE FRONT AND GRADUALLY BACK BUILD INTO CENTRAL MN ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT DEEP LATER SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL/WINDS.

OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING/SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOWER MI ALONG/AHEAD
OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER WI MCS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR SOME
HAIL ACROSS THE AREA. REFERENCE WW 687.

...WRN MT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ID WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...30-35 KT MID
LEVEL WINDS AND LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY BE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS.

...ORE/ID...
UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NEWD INTO SRN WA AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS
RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT
35 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND WINDS.

...NV/UT/SRN UT...
HIGH LEVEL IMPULSE WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL UT WITH A SPEED MAX MOVING
THROUGH ERN NV/UT. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY ORGANIZED INTO A LINE FROM
NERN NV SWWD INTO WRN UT. 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS...LARGER
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND MID LEVEL WINDS PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LINE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS THE
STORMS SPREAD NWD.

...IL/IND...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
WRN IN SWWD INTO SRN IL. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AND 30-35 KT MID/HIGH NWLY FLOW...STORMS HAVE MOVED SEWD AWAY FROM
LOW LEVEL JET. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH BRIEF WIND/HAIL...BUT THREAT
WILL DECREASE AS STORMS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

...ERN CAROLINAS...
OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS ALEX HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WEAK WIND PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT A TORNADO
THREAT.

..IMY.. 08/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.