[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021636
SWODY1
SPC AC 021634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW
MLS GDV Y22 45 NNE ABR 25 WSW STC 40 NW EAU 50 S ESC 10 SE OSC MTC
35 NE FWA MTO ALN JEF FLV GRI 25 SE MHN 35 ENE AIA 81V BIL 45 SE LWT
85 NW MLS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RDM 40
SE DLS ALW 40 WSW S80 45 NE BOI 35 S WEY MLD OWY 85 NNW WMC 4LW RDM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N OTH 40 NW DLS
EPH 30 NNE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW IPL 40 SE EDW
35 SE BIH 25 SW NFL 35 NNW RNO 30 SSW SVE 35 SSE RBL 30 SW UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW GAD 40 SE BNA
30 S CKV 60 S HRO 30 NW FYV 30 ENE EMP 35 S HSI 25 WSW MCK 55 WSW
GLD 40 N CAO 30 NW AMA 55 SSW CDS 25 ENE GGG 50 WNW JAN 20 WNW GAD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 15 NNW ELM
15 ENE IPT 20 SSW MSV 20 NE BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ORE AND SOUTHERN
ID...

BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL POSE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGHOUT THIS
ZONE TODAY.

...WI/LOWER MI...
MCS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WI IS MOVING INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS.  THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI.  DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR
SOME HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL.

...IL/IND...
REMNANT CLUSTER OF DECAYING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN IL WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WITH LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POSING A RISK
OF NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  AIRMASS IN THIS REGION IS VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES
EXPECTED AROUND 2000 J/KG.  SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IF NEW DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR.  THESE STORMS
WOULD SPREAD INTO IND BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

...SD/NEB/MN/IA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
MAIN SURFACE LOW PERSISTS OVER NEB/SD...WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS
NORTH OF LOW.  A VERY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SD BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE CAP SLOWLY WEAKENING.  A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING OUT OF WY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD BY
00Z...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.  AMPLE
CAPE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE UPSCALE INTO AN MCS
BY LATE EVENING OVER EASTERN SD/NERN NEB...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS INTO MN/IA OVERNIGHT.  THIS AREA COULD BE UPGRADED
TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE OF THIS SCENARIO
INCREASES.

...MT...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MT. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST MT.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 25-30 KNOTS OF WESTERLY MID
LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL.

...ORE/ID...
UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CA THIS MORNING...BUT IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO ORE BY THIS EVENING. 
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
EASTERN ORE AND SOUTHERN ID...WHERE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...WITH RATHER COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SUPPORTING A RISK
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.

...CAROLINAS...
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OVER THE CAROLINA COAST REMAIN RATHER WEAK
AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TS ALEX MAY POSE A RISK OF BRIEF TORNADOES...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING DURING MAX DIURNAL HEATING.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 08/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.