[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 012002
SWODY1
SPC AC 012000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OMA 30
ENE OLU 25 WSW YKN 15 NNW HON 35 ESE ABR 40 NE ATY 15 NNE RWF 35 W
MCW 30 NNW DSM 60 WSW DSM OMA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW
ANJ 20 ESE GRB 40 NE MLI 40 WSW UIN 20 WNW SZL 10 ESE TOP 35 SW BIE
15 SE ANW 25 SW Y22 60 N ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE IPL 30 NNE DAG
65 SSE NFL 50 N SVE 45 ESE MHS 30 SSE RBL 45 NNW UKI 20 E 4BK 15 N
SLE 35 NW PDT 10 NNW 3TH 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 60 SE OSC 15 SW LAF
10 E BLV 35 SW TBN 20 W JLN 25 E ICT 15 S RSL 50 WSW HLC 50 NE LAA
45 E TAD 55 WSW CAO 30 WNW CVS 45 NE HOB 60 NE BGS 35 SSW SPS 15 N
ADM 20 NNE PGO 45 E PBF 30 NNE TUP 35 ESE BNA HTS 20 SE PIT 15 WNW
UCA 35 NNW BML.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD...SW
MN...WRN IA AND FAR NE NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...WRN GREAT LAKES...UPPER MIDWEST AND MO VALLEY...

...UPPER MO VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
WITH NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE RUC MODEL
CURRENTLY HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD ACROSS SD AND NRN NEB. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE MODERATE RISK AREA
MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.


SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW CENTERED OVER SRN SD WITH A SMALL MOISTURE
TONGUE IN PLACE ACROSS NE SD WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER
60S F. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DRIFTING EWD NEAR ABR
AND AS THIS PATCH MOVES INTO A MAXIMUM OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
WATERTOWN SD...INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS SRN ND AND EWD
ALONG A THERMAL GRADIENT IN SRN MN. STORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING IN
SRN IA AND THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN ERN SD AND WRN MN WILL MOVE SSEWD INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM
2500 TO 3500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. THE BACKED
SFC FLOW ACROSS SE SD AND NW IA MAY ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.
THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM
WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS SE SD AND SW MN BY EARLY EVENING. THE WIND
DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS THE STORMS MATURE LATER THIS
EVENING...SPREADING SSEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS FAR NE
NEB AND WRN IA. IF AN MCS CAN GET GOING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE KANSAS CITY AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

...DESERT SOUTHWEST...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMING
NWD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
MINOR DISTURBANCE OVER SERN CA AND SRN NV MOVING NWD WHICH SHOULD
REACH WRN UT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCALLY ENHANCING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS
AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR PEAK HEATING. DECREASING INSTABILITY BY
EARLY EVENING WILL ALLOW THE MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY.

..BROYLES.. 08/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.