[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020121
SWODY1
SPC AC 020120

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0820 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S
OMA 25 E OLU 65 SSE 9V9 15 WSW PIR 60 S Y22 20 SSW BIS 20 E BIS 35
ESE JMS 30 S AXN 15 S MKT 40 E FOD DSM 45 E OMA 15 S OMA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
INL 50 WSW DLH 50 SE DLH 25 SE VOK 25 SW MLI 20 WNW IRK 20 SE FNB 10
W BIE 30 S PHP 40 SE REJ 75 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE IPL 30 SW DAG
70 NNW BIH 10 ESE SVE 45 ESE MHS 30 SSE RBL 45 NW UKI 15 NW ACV 15 N
SLE 45 WNW ALW 25 E 3TH 55 WNW CTB ...CONT... 60 SE OSC 25 NNW LAF
10 WSW MTO 40 NW POF 25 WNW SGF 20 ESE CNK 30 SSW EAR 30 WSW LBF 35
E AKO 45 E TAD 35 WNW CAO 30 W TCC 10 W PVW 65 NW ABI 45 NW MWL 30
NNE FTW 30 SW PRX 30 W ELD 50 ESE GWO 20 W HSV 20 NNW 5I3 LBE 10 NW
RUT 20 SSE CAR.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN ND INTO
CENTRAL/ERN SD...SWRN MN...NERN NEB AND PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO THE MID
MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD NWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
WITH STRONGEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE U.S./
CANADA BORDER EWD OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS CRESTED THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND IS
AIDING IN ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SWRN ND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ESEWD
TOWARD SRN MN TONIGHT...WHILE A SECOND WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO SRN ONTARIO.  A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK EWD TOWARD WRN ONTARIO/NWRN MN BY 12Z
MONDAY.

...DAKOTAS EWD TO MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ND WITH
TWO BOUNDARIES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN ND AND FAR NRN SD INTO
CENTRAL MN.  SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NWWD TO ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER...AND INTO CENTRAL/SRN MN.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2500-3000
J/KG/ AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL SD EWD ACROSS ALL OF SRN MN INTO WEST
CENTRAL WI...AND SWD ACROSS ERN NEB WHERE THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG/.  

GIVEN THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS SWRN ND/NWRN SD ATTM AND
THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL SD HAS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE...THE MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED WNWWD INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF SD AND SRN ND.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WITH THIS CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS AND TRACK SEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN SD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THREAT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...GIVEN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND 50-60 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN MN/
SERN SD AND ERN NEB TO IA DECOUPLES WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN LINEAR MCS
WITH A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ AT
40-50 KT NOSING INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY FAVORS THIS SCENARIO
WITH THE WIND THREAT POTENTIALLY REACHING NRN MO AND EXTREME NERN
KS/SERN NEB BY 12Z MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN ND INTO PORTIONS OF
NWRN MN AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
SRN CANADA SPREADS EWD OVERNIGHT.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

...NERN WI/NRN LOWER MI AND U.P. OF MI...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REST OF NERN WI AND
THE U.P. OF MI TO NRN LOWER MI THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WAA OVER THIS SAME AREA WILL ALSO AID IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE
LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NW...
DEEP SLY FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF NWRN CA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD.  00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WRN STATES SHOW STRONGLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...RESULTING IN
STRONG WIND GUSTS.  POCKETS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT
EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL RISK.

..PETERS.. 08/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.