[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011606
SWODY1
SPC AC 011604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABR 35
NE ATY RWF FRM 40 E FOD DSM 55 WSW DSM OMA OFK MHE ABR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 45
SE ELO CMX ANJ PLN GRB MSN RFD UIN MKC FNB GRI BUB 9V9 10 NW Y22 DIK
55 N MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE OSC 25 ENE AZO
20 NW SLO 10 SSW SGF 35 SE HSI 35 N HLC 35 SSW GLD 35 NNE CAO 30 NW
TCC 50 NNE ROW 25 SE HOB 25 WSW SEP 25 NE GLH 40 S MSL 30 W BKW 35
ENE CRW 25 SSE PIT 15 NNW ELM 35 NNE UCA 10 ENE EFK ...CONT... 10
SSE IPL 35 NE TRM 40 ESE BIH 15 ESE RNO 60 NNE SVE 45 E MHS 30 SSE
RBL 45 NNW UKI 20 E 4BK 15 N SLE 35 NW PDT 10 NNW 3TH 55 NNW FCA.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN SD...NORTHEAST NEB...SOUTHWEST MN...AND WESTERN
IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES...

BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES TODAY.  SEVERAL SMALL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW REGIME...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MO/IL/WI AND UPPER MI.

...IA/MN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX OVER EASTERN SD...AND A
PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEMS OVER ND AND NORTHEAST WY.  THE EASTERN FEATURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS IA/MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL FOCUS RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS.  AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY WITH
AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG.  ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA.  

...SD/NEB/MN/IA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER ND/WY WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT EASTERN SD BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  12Z ETA GUIDANCE APPEARS
TO OVER-DEVELOP EARLY CONVECTION...WHILE 12Z RUC SCENARIO APPEARS
SOMEWHAT MORE REASONABLE.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER
THIS REGION...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 90F AND THE SURFACE DRYLINE
MIXING EASTWARD TO ROUGHLY AN OFK-ABR LINE.  EXTREME INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND MLCAPE
VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. CAP WILL HOLD STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGHS WILL AID IN THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21-00Z.  DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH THE RISK OF
VERY LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  BACKED SURFACE WINDS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...ALONG WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MAY ALSO LOCALLY
ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL FROM SOUTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN INTO
NORTHWEST IA.  ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA DURING THE NIGHT WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS.

...ND TONIGHT...
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MT WILL TRACK
INTO ND OVERNIGHT.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...UPPER MI...
PER COORDINATION WITH APX...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME RISK OF LAKE
BREEZE CONVECTION OVER UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.  AIRMASS IS RAPIDLY
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WITH AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG POSSIBLE. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG HEATING
WILL HELP LAKE BREEZE FORM...WHILE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR ARE PRESENT FOR A RISK OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. 
LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

...NORTHERN IL...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS REMNANT MCV OVER EASTERN IA.  THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL TODAY...WITH
A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR STRONGER CORES. 
HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

...NV/UT/AZ...
PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S...SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF UT/NV/AZ.  THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF
STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...
COMBINED WITH 25-35 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL WINDS.  A FEW STORMS IN THIS
AREA MAY PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART.. 08/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.