[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011301
SWODY1
SPC AC 011259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
ABR 35 NNE ATY 45 WSW STC MKT 40 E FOD DSM 50 ESE OMA OMA 20 NNW OFK
MHE HON 25 SE ABR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL
ELO IWD CWA 30 NW MMO 45 NNW COU 30 N SZL STJ FNB LNK 40 W OFK 9V9
35 NNW PIR 35 WSW Y22 30 NW DIK 55 N MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE OSC BLV SGF 30
SW BIE MCK 30 W GLD 25 NE CAO 45 W ROW GDP INK SEP 40 S MSL 30 W BKW
AOO 45 W ALB 30 NE EFK ...CONT... 15 SW YUM 35 NNE BLH 40 ESE BIH 25
W NFL 65 SE 4LW 60 SSE LMT 30 SSE RBL 45 NNW UKI 20 E 4BK 25 SSW EUG
15 N PDT 3TH 55 NNW FCA.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN SD...SWRN MN...WRN
IA..NERN NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM MUCH OF ND SEWD
TOWARD NWRN IL AND NRN MO...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS THROUGHOUT REMAINDER PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL RISE
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS AS
MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS GENERALLY EWD FROM SRN ROCKIES ACROSS
S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG RIDGE WILL EXTEND NWWD ACROSS ID/WA. 
UPSTREAM CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY BETWEEN
BAY AREA AND CAPE MENDOCINO -- IS FCST TO EVOLVE INTO OPEN-WAVE
TROUGH BY AROUND END OF PERIOD...AND MOVE SLOWLY ASHORE NRN CA.

AT SFC...PRIMARY LOW IS ANALYZED OVER E-CENTRAL SD BETWEEN PIR-MHE
AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER E-CENTRAL/SERN SD AREA THROUGH DAYLIGHT
HOURS. THREE BAROCLINIC ZONES ARE ANALYZED INTO THIS LOW --
1. OCCLUDED FRONT NEWD ACROSS NWRN MN...
2.WARM FRONT EWD ACROSS SERN SD/SWRN MN BECOMING DIFFUSED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER SRN MN...AND
3.SECONDARY WARM FRONT SEWD ACROSS NWRN MO -- REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW
OVER IA.

EXPECT WARM FRONTAL ZONES TO BLEND TOGETHER E THROUGH ESE OF SFC LOW
DURING DAY.  OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN...WHILE DRIFTING EWD OVER
NRN MN AND BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SD NNE OF
SFC LOW.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS IA AND ERN NEB DEVELOPED IN
ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA ZONE BEHIND A COUPLE OF DEAD MCS/S...AND MAY
PRODUCE SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL THROUGH MIDMORNING.  OAX RAOB AND RUC
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED
BY AROUND 2500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE...BUT LAYER OF RELATIVELY WEAK
MIDLEVEL WINDS THAT PRODUCES SMALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR -- IN CAPE
BEARING LAYER.

AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOISTEN ONCE AGAIN BY ABOUT 21Z OVER
PORTIONS ERN SD...SW MN...AND PORTIONS WRN IA...IN WAKE OF
CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. EXPECT MOIST ADVECTION AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TO CONTRIBUTE TO SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 70S
F.  THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING AND 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES YIELDS VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH
3000-5000 J/KG MLCAPE. TIGHTENING OF HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL BY AFTERNOON.  MODIFIED ETA/RUC SOUNDINGS REASONABLY
INDICATE 45-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH AS HIGH AS 300-350
J/KG.  TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR SFC LOW AND
INVOF WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE MOST
STRONGLY BACKED...CONTRIBUTING TO ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS AND GREATEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

PRIND MOST SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING OVER MDT RISK AREA ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
SUFFICIENTLY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY.  STRONG CAPPING WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF DAY.  HOWEVER...ONCE IT
BREAKS...EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED. THIS
INCLUDES THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL
LIKELY.  TORNADOES AND SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. 
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BETWEEN LOWER MO
AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH MAIN THREAT EVOLVING INTO
DAMAGING WIND.

SECONDARY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS ND/NRN MN TONIGHT...W OF OCCLUDED FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH.  STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NERN MT/NWRN SD.  NEITHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOR BOUNDARY LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE AS INTENSE AS FARTHER SE...HOWEVER STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT...40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...AND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO
ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT WITHIN 150-200 NM OF CANADIAN BORDER.

...NRN AZ/SRN UT REGION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THIS REGION ATTM...IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASE IN LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING DEEP SLY FLOW.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SERVE TO
FURTHER MOISTEN BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT ALSO TO RETARD ONSET/INTENSITY
OF AFTERNOON DIABATIC HEATING. MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS
NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.  HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL AND
POORLY ORGANIZED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK...GIVEN
LIMITED BUOYANCY.

..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 08/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.